"Nervous." Trevor Mallard's response about his chances of holding on to Hutt South seems odd, considering he has held the seat for 21 years.
But boundary changes this year could swing as many as 2500 votes from red to blue. The seat now covers all of the Western Hills, formerly in Peter Dunne's Ohariu seat, and loses Labour-leaning suburb Naenae.
Throw in National candidate Chris Bishop, highly regarded by his party, and a few high-profile visits to the electorate by John Key and Steven Joyce, and the contest heats up.
"We know they are having a go at the seat, but I've never regarded it as safe," said Mr Mallard.
"I am always nervous, and there is more reason to be nervous now."