IS FLOODING a sign of climate change?
Is a vicious cold snap the sign of climate change? Is an extended drought a sign of climate change? How can they all be a sign of climate change?
Yes and no. Together, yes these signs may collectively represent a change in our climate. But alone, each is simply an example of weather.
And as Whanganui discovered last weekend, weather is notoriously hard to predict.
There was a pretty casual approach to the rains that were the precursor to the biggest flood in Whanganui in recorded history - labelled a one-in-85-year flood.
The problem with climate change is that the flood that used to be a one-in-100-year flood is now a one-in-50-year event, and so on.
It means places like Whanganui, built up around nutritious flood plains and historical river transport routes, are increasingly vulnerable to floods.
Climate change, acknowledged by 98 per cent of scientists as caused by human impact, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, means rising sea levels and disruption to our weather patterns.
For some places, it means more rain and storm events; for others, more drought and high-risk fire seasons - it means more extremes. So my apologies to those turfed out of their homes by the weekend's wicked waters - I don't mean to politicise your personal trauma and loss, but it must be said.
I know Nelson Lebo beat me to it in his column earlier this week: we often seem to playing the duelling banjos of sustainability preaching. Even Chronicle editor Mark Dawson got in on the act, using the dreaded c-words, climate change, in his editorial.
There are two pathways to deal with climate change and neither is sufficient on its own. The first is mitigation - reduce emissions by rapidly transitioning away from dependence on burning fossil fuels that are warming the atmosphere at these crazy-fast speeds that are causing the devastating acceleration of things like ice-shelf melting, methane release and ocean acidification. The second is adaptation - accept a level of change is already happening and work out what that means for your infrastructure, particularly in coastal settlements like Whanganui.
What do the sea-level rise predictions mean for our stopbanks; for my favourite ice cream shop, the Kowhai Park Dairy; for my friend who didn't have contents insurance in her Anzac Parade rental property?
I was a Wanganui Girls' College rower during the massive flood event of 1990 - the clean-up of silt from the Aramoho Rowing Club was horrible. I can imagine how much work is ahead of so many in our region.
Thank goodness for the wonderful people bringing together volunteers to lend a hand to those in need.
As a primary school student in Golden Bay in 1983, I remember when the Takaka River burst its bank and gushed down the main street. We had two families of flood refugees stay with us at our Bank of New Zealand apartment upstairs, well safe from floodwaters. I recall our neighbours' firewood spread throughout our backyard.
Flooding has and always will be part of nature - the issue is the increasing impact that comes with flooding, both in extent and regularity, which is intensified by climate change.
If even Pope Francis spoke in the past week about the significance of climate change, ironically just before our awful flooding event, maybe it's time our own Government took notice.
New Zealand is about to participate in talks on climate in Paris - consultation on the New Zealand position recently closed. Let's hope our Whanganui event is not labelled another "freak" of nature and instead is something that prompts a stronger response, both in terms of serious targets for mitigation and adapting to the reality of climate change happening now.
-Nicola Young has worked in the government and private sectors in Australia and NZ and now works from home in Taranaki for a national charitable foundation. Educated at Wanganui Girls' College, she has a science degree and is the mother of two boys.