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Home / Whanganui Chronicle

Nelson Lebo: Climate change tests our resilience

By Nelson Lebo
Whanganui Chronicle·
20 Jun, 2016 10:10 PM4 mins to read

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EXTREME: The record flood of June 2015 that hit Whanganui ... more is expected.

EXTREME: The record flood of June 2015 that hit Whanganui ... more is expected.

THERE appear to be increasing levels of anxiety among environmental activists around the world and in our own community.

And why not? Temperature records are being set at a pace equalled only to that of Stephen Curry and LeBron James in the NBA finals. The latest Google news headline says it all: "May is the eighth consecutive month to break global temperature records."

In other words, October of last year set a record for the highest recorded global temperature, and then it was bettered by November, which was bettered by December, January and on through May.

Making history - like the Irish rugby side in South Africa just over a week ago - is usually a time to celebrate. Setting a world record would normally mean jubilation ... not so when it comes to climate.

Responses to temperature records range from sorrow, despair, anger and even fury. Anyone with children or grandchildren who believes in peer review and an overwhelming scientific consensus has every right to feel these emotions.

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So why do I feel only resignation?

We are so far down the track at this point that we are damned if we do and damned if we don't. Remember the warnings 30 years ago that we needed 30 years to make the transition to a low-carbon economy? Well, in case you weren't paying attention, it didn't happen.

For most people, climate change will emerge as a quality of life issue, and quality of life is related to a certain extent on disposable income.

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If the international community ever takes collective action on climate change, it will make individuals poorer because the cost of energy will rise significantly. If the international community fails to act, individuals will be made poorer because of the devastating effects of extreme weather events - like last year's record flood here in Whanganui - which have been shown to be on the increase over the past 40 years in hundreds of peer-reviewed papers with verifiable data.

And here is the worst part - the New Zealand and Whanganui economies, which rely heavily on agriculture and tourism, are exceptionally vulnerable to both acting and not acting on climate change.

Drought hurts rural economies and weather bombs can cost millions in repairs to fencing, tracks and roads. As a result, both farmers and ratepayers have fewer dollars in their pockets to spend on new shoes, a night out or a piece of art. The net result is a negative impact on quality of life: damned if we don't.

Tourism relies on inexpensive jet fuel and petrol to get the sightseers and thrill-seekers to and around Aotearoa with enough dollars left over to slosh around provincial economies. The Whanganui economy also depends on cheap petrol to attract domestic visitors for events like Vintage Weekend and the Masters Games, as well as to visit the museum, gallery or paddle steamer. Indeed, our council subsidises these ventures to the tune of millions of dollars with the expectation of attracting visitor dollars that rely entirely on a continuous supply of cheap fuel.

But any significant approach to curbing carbon emissions will result in drastic increases to energy prices. The higher the cost of a trip from Washington or Wellington to Whanganui, the less likely it is to be made.

As a result, business owners and ratepayers will have fewer dollars in their pockets to spend on new shoes, a night out or a piece of art. The net result is a negative impact on quality of life: damned if we do.

Put simply, our regional economy and the quality of life it brings relies on both a moderate climate and cheap fossil fuels - but these are mutually exclusive. Regardless of emissions decisions made by the international community, we are already on track for decades of temperature records and extreme weather that will cost our district tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars.

On the other hand, a drop in tourism due to carbon taxes may do the same.

This is just one example of the challenges facing our community - and certainly one of the greatest. Smart communities recognise challenges and respond accordingly - and so the best response for our district is to develop resilience in the following areas: economic, equity, energy and ecological.

By thinking holistically and working together, we can prepare ourselves for the next storm.

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