Whanganui Chronicle
  • Whanganui Chronicle home
  • Latest news
  • Sport
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
  • Death notices
  • Classifieds

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • On The Up
  • Sport
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Residential property listings
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology

Locations

  • Taranaki
  • National Park
  • Whakapapa
  • Ohakune
  • Raetihi
  • Taihape
  • Marton
  • Feilding
  • Palmerston North

Media

  • Video
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-Editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

Weather

  • New Plymouth
  • Whanganui
  • Palmertson North
  • Levin

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Whanganui Chronicle

Gwynne Dyer: 'Little Ice Age' lessons unheeded

By Gwynne Dyer
Columnist·Whanganui Chronicle·
19 Feb, 2019 12:02 AM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Inca ruins at the long-abandoned city of Machu Picchu, in Peru. Western diseases took a huge toll of native American lives. Photo / File

Inca ruins at the long-abandoned city of Machu Picchu, in Peru. Western diseases took a huge toll of native American lives. Photo / File

The Black Death killed about 30 per cent of the European population in a few years in the middle of the 14th century.

About 150 years later, the native people of the Americas were hit by half a dozen plagues as bad as the Black Death, one after another, and 95 per cent of them died.

The plagues of "The Great Dying" had much less terrifying names like measles, influenza, diphtheria and smallpox, but they were just as efficient at killing.

When the tens of millions of native Americans died, the forests grew back on the land they used to farm.

Read more: Gwynne Dyer: Magnetic reversal: Don't panic
Gwynne Dyer: New food tech may help save us
Gwynne Dyer: European allies bend to join 'gringo empire' approach

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

All those forests absorbed so much carbon dioxide that the average global temperature dropped, and what would otherwise have been a minor cyclical cooling became the "Little Ice Age". It got so cold that lots of Europeans starved to death - so maybe there is such a thing as "climate justice" after all.

The lead researcher of the team at University College London who joined up all these dots is doctoral candidate Alexander Koch (he hasn't even got his PhD yet).

He borrowed the phrase "The Great Dying" from the paleontologists, who use it to describe the mass extinction event at the end of the Permian era 252 million years ago - the worst of them all. It works just as well for human beings.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

When Christopher Columbus arrived in the Caribbean in 1492, there were about 60 million people living in the Americas, and 99 per cent of them were already farmers.

Eurasian civilisations had a bit of a head-start on them - iron tools, ocean-going ships, even gunpowder - but their numbers and their economies were very similar. There were 70 million or 80 million Europeans, and most of them were farmers, too.

A century later, there were only six million native Americans left - a 90 per cent fatality rate. Yet, at that time, there were still only about a quarter-million Europeans in the Americas. They clearly couldn't have killed the other 54 million natives - but their diseases did.

Even now, journalists reporting on this story go on referring to the European genocide of the native peoples, but that's nonsense.

Discover more

Politics

Gwynne Dyer: Half a loaf spread with compromise can still taste bitter

06 Feb 03:00 AM

Gwynne Dyer: Peace negotiations with Taliban better late than never

07 Feb 08:35 PM
World

Gwynne Dyer: New food tech may help save us

14 Feb 02:00 AM
World

Gwynne Dyer: Magnetic reversal: Don't panic

15 Feb 03:00 AM

The Europeans killed some tens of thousands of Incas, Aztecs and others in various battles, and they took slaves to work their mines and grow their sugar, but why would they cause a genocide?

The problem was that the native Americans had absolutely no inherited resistance to the quick-killer Eurasian diseases that the Europeans brought with them.

Those diseases had emerged in the densely populated countries of Europe and East Asia one at a time over thousands of years, passing from the herds and flocks of domesticated animals to their human owners, who now also lived in herd-like conditions.

Each one of these new diseases killed millions before the survivors developed some resistance, but the Asian, European and African populations had time to recover before the next one emerged. The native Americans got all the plagues at once.

What really interests Alexander Koch and his colleagues is that this caused the largest abandonment of farmland in all history.

The six million survivors didn't need all those farms, so the forests came back quickly. As they grew, they absorbed huge amounts of carbon dioxide, cutting the amount in the global atmosphere by about ten parts per million (10 ppm).

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

That dropped the average global temperature, which was already a little lower than usual because of cyclical changes in the Earth's orbit.

The Little Ice Age lasted for more than 200 years and probably caused a couple of million extra deaths in local famines in Eurasia, so at least a little bit of the misery travelled the other way.

But our impact on the environment has now grown so large that a 10 parts per million ppm cut in our emissions is almost meaningless. We are currently adding around 10 ppm of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every four years.

On the other hand, if we were to reforest all the land that was cleared in the past 150 years but is not prime agricultural land, we could sequester 50 ppm of carbon dioxide.

That might win us the time we need to get carbon emissions down without triggering runaway warming.

Instead, the Brazilians elect Jair Bolsonaro to clear-cut the Amazon, and the United States elects Donald Trump to outsource US climate policy to the fossil fuel industry.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

We know a great deal more than the native Americans did about the elements that would decide their fate, but we may be no better than they were at avoiding it.

Gwynne Dyer's new book is 'Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy (and Work)'

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Whanganui Chronicle

Whanganui Chronicle

Ngāti Rangi’s whānau housing push

17 Jun 03:02 AM
Whanganui Chronicle

Major North Island farming business appoints new boss

16 Jun 09:12 PM
Whanganui Chronicle

Family escapes devastating house fire as community rallies support

16 Jun 06:08 PM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Whanganui Chronicle

Ngāti Rangi’s whānau housing push

Ngāti Rangi’s whānau housing push

17 Jun 03:02 AM

'This is an iwi-led solution – an investment in ourselves and our communities.'

Major North Island farming business appoints new boss

Major North Island farming business appoints new boss

16 Jun 09:12 PM
Family escapes devastating house fire as community rallies support

Family escapes devastating house fire as community rallies support

16 Jun 06:08 PM
Whanganui East gains new GP clinic

Whanganui East gains new GP clinic

16 Jun 06:00 PM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • Whanganui Chronicle e-edition
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Subscribe to the Whanganui Chronicle
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • NZME Events
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP