Only the lower storey of the Surf Club is at minor risk of seawater flooding.
"The dunes are still building up and provide a very effective buffer to coastal hazards."
In the lower river area, the Balgownie stopbank is designed to protect houses and businesses for 50 years of sea-level rise.
The situation down the coast at Koitiata is more serious. Houses in the seaward street are already at risk in the highest tides. "Even in the current climate, a one in 100-year storm will get into Koitiata township. Driftwood has reached the township before, but it will not flood deeply into homes."
With climate change and sea level rise the number of properties at risk will increase, and reach the second street back from the coast.
"It would be unwise to build new homes in that area."
The settlement is also at risk from coastal erosion. The mouth of the Turakina River has moved many times in the past decades, taking dunes and stretches of coast with it. That could be prevented by installing groynes in the river, as was done at Waikawa Beach further south.
Saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers is another possible risk of sea level rise.
Horizons groundwater scientist Abby Matthews said this was being monitored automatically every 15 minutes at bore sites near the mouths of the Rangitikei and Turakina rivers.
There was no sign of any intrusion so far.
Wanganui's greatest risk from climate change is increased flooding caused by higher rainfall, Mr Blackwood said.
Warmer air holds more moisture, and river flows are predicted to increase at least 20 per cent by 2090.
"That means bigger floods. It's just pure cloud physics. An eight per cent increase in rainfall intensity is expected for every degree temperature rise."
By 2090 the temperature is expected to rise 2.1 to 3.8 per cent, making for an increase of 16.8 to 30 per cent in rainfall.
"It's to be hoped that worldwide there will be a moderation in emissions, but we are already in train for a lot of this," Mr Blackwood said.