Police hunting fugitive dad Tom Phillips were given regular threat assessments that shaped their almost four-year manhunt.
The assessments on Phillips - including the pros and cons of armed police responses - were carried out from the time Phillips fled into the bush with his children in late 2021, up to his fatal shooting in September 2025.
Phillips died in an early-morning shoot-out with police on a quiet country road. He was fatally injured after firing on police, critically injuring one officer.
“Threat assessments were regularly updated as circumstances required and were produced in a number of forms,” acting police deputy commissioner Jill Rogers told the Herald.
“These assessments informed police decision making during the search for Tom Phillips and his children. The steps police took, or could or should have taken, to bring this matter to an end sooner are subject to a public inquiry.”
Rogers said the assessments were “regularly updated as circumstances required”.
Phillips’ assessment was high, as police knew he was armed and possibly dangerous when the family disappeared into the bush.
A police source told the Herald police threat assessments are mandatory and identify, evaluate, and mitigate potential violence or harm by analysing behaviours, communications, and circumstances around individuals or situations, to ensure the safety of police, the public, and potential targets before an incident occurs.
Before executing search warrants, assessments are carried out on the person or people and premises police are entering, the police source said.
If firearms are likely on the premises, the Armed Offenders Squad are called in to lead the entry phase of the operation.
Operation Curly - the police hunt for Phillips and his children - came to an end on September 8 2025 when Phillips shot and critically injured an officer before he was fatally shot by another police officer.
Phillips’ death, and his ability to evade capture for almost four years are the subject of a number of investigations, Rogers said.
“Operation Curly ended on September 8, 2025, when Tom Phillips shot and critically injured an officer before he himself was shot and killed by police,” Rogers said.
“The events of 8 September are subject to several active investigations, including a Critical Incident investigation, an Independent Police Conduct Authority (IPCA) investigation and a Coronial inquiry. Police also continues to investigate the likelihood Phillips received outside support.”
She said injunctions by the High Court and Family Court placed strict restrictions on what information could be released.
“It is in the public interest that the inquiry is able to progress its work without relevant information being disclosed by police,” Rogers said.
“While I acknowledge there is a significant public interest in the events surrounding the shooting and the search for Tom Phillips and his children, it is important that these investigations are not prejudiced by premature release of relevant information.”
Phillips and his children disappeared from the Waikato town of Marokopa on December 9, 2021 and moved to locations scattered through south Waikato.
Last week the Herald revealed police used 28 different motion-activated cameras in various locations in Waikato bush during their manhunt.
But despite such extensive camera coverage Rogers said Phillips and his children were only spotted occasionally and “never in circumstances that allowed police to safely intervene”.
Phillips is alleged to have committed a bank robbery in September 2023, but the first confirmed sighting of him and the children was on October 3, 2024, when they were spotted walking through Marokopa farmland.
Police believe Phillips was supported while on the run.
Almost three weeks after Phillips was shot, Police Superintendent Ross McKay outlined the resources police had used in the lengthy pursuit of the fugitive father and his children.
Specialist police and defence force groups were used at locations to try to resolve the issue peacefully.
“At various times during the operation, police specialist units such as Special Tactics Group (STG), Armed Offenders Squad (AOS), Search and Rescue (S&R) and Tactical Operations Group (TOG), were used,” McKay said.
“There was also support from the New Zealand Defence Force (SAS), with helicopter and ground assets.
“Other resources included geospatial imagery, thermal imagery, covert technology such as motion-activated cameras, and Airbus Flexrotor drones.”
McKay said police “never stopped trying to find” the fugitive dad and thousands of hours were dedicated to the search.
“Intelligence played an important role in informing decisions and planning for possible outcomes.
“We knew Phillips had firearms and was motivated to use them.
“We also knew, based on previous actions and behavioural science analysis, that Phillips was unlikely to surrender easily and was prepared to put the children in harm’s way.”
The “primary objective” was locating and returning the children safely.
McKay said police had focused on two key things to try and achieve that; finding a campsite or a supply route.
Following the conclusion of Operation Curly police launched Operation Cranmere to identify and investigate those who might have assisted Phillips.
That investigation is ongoing.
Joseph Los’e is the NZ Herald’s Kaupapa Māori Editor. Los’e was chief reporter, news director at the Sunday News covering crime, justice and sport. He was also editor of the NZ Truth and prior to NZME worked for urban Māori organisation Whānau Waipareira.