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OPINION: In Winston Churchill’s 1898 book The Story of the Malakand Field Force, capturing his time as a cavalry officer and war correspondent in India, he wrote that “nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result”.
Exhilaration – and perhaps the presence of mind to deploy stage craft – seemed to propel Donald Trump to his feet, stall his Secret Service agents, and pump his fist in the air, to the delight of his adoring fans, at the Pennsylvania rally where he survived an assassination attempt.
The indelible image inked that day could propel him to the presidency again, even if Kamala Harris stands a greater chance of heading him off than the decrepit Joe Biden did.
But the odds of a Trump victory in November are great enough to consider what a second term might mean for New Zealand.
If you thought the problem with late-stage capitalism was the American-led order and globalisation – and hey, I devoured Naomi Klein’s 1999 book No Logo: Taking Aim at the Brand Bullies, too – then wait until we have US withdrawal and de-globalisation.
Trump, and his running mate JD Vance, hate free trade, globalisation and the rules-based order. For them, it’s America First.
None of this is good for NZ. We are the little kid in a playground plagued by bullies. We need a rules-based order to survive and thrive. Trump’s trade and foreign policy will already be creating anxiety in the Beehive.
His website says his trade policy is to “impose tariffs on FOREIGN producers through a system of universal baseline tariffs on most imported goods” (the caps are his), which could be set at 10%.
A trade war with China (our largest trading partner) seems inevitable. Trump is promising “aggressive new restrictions on Chinese ownership” of US assets. He’s even threatening to ban Americans from investing in China and prohibiting imports of Chinese electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals.
A coherent economic policy is difficult to discern. But Trump calls himself a “tariff man” and he loves tax cuts (he’s now talking about a 15% corporate tax rate). Otherwise, he’s all over the map.
He has mused about having a role in setting interest rates, trashing the independence of the Federal Reserve. He has railed against Wall St, but has floated JPMorgan Chase & Co chief executive Jamie Dimon as his potential Treasury Secretary.
On foreign policy, Trump and Vance are hardcore isolationists. They have no interest in helping police the world order that New Zealand depends on.
Trump’s platform is full of ideas that look bizarre and impractical but resonate as metaphors for his world view.
One of his policies is to, “BUILD A GREAT IRON DOME MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD OVER OUR ENTIRE COUNTRY”.
On Nato, Trump gives the impression he would not abide by the alliance’s collective defence clause, and he says Russia could do “whatever the hell they want” if a Nato member country hasn’t ponied up enough cash.
He has promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours – even before he is inaugurated – and stop the “endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine”. Quite what compromises that would involve are anyone’s guess.
The isolationism extends to immigration policy, with Trump stating, “we will carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history”.
Trump says he will restore his “wonderful” travel ban on individuals from several majority-Muslim countries to “keep radical Islamic terrorists out of our country” (Biden overturned it in 2021). He’s also talked of expelling foreign students who participated in pro-Palestinian protests.
Trump’s first term was a chaotic and comical farrago, aided by a revolving door of crooks and clowns, some of whom ended up in jail.
This time, the American right is organised. Project 2025, backed by the Heritage Foundation, is a 922-page blueprint for presidential transition. Its critics describe it as a Christian nationalist plan “for a wannabe White House autocrat”.
Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts did little to calm the waters when he said in July that “we are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be”.
Any American revolution would be felt well outside its borders; NZ would struggle in a world where countries pull up the drawbridge.
Our discomfit at being wedged between the US (on security) and China (on trade) would be exacerbated. Would NZ want to sign up to Pillar Two of Aukus, a trilateral agreement to share non-nuclear military technology, with Trump as Commander in Chief?
NZ may yet dodge a bullet, as Trump (fortunately) did. Harris may make history as the first woman to become president.
But then a Trump defeat could be scary, too. Would the MAGA mob accept it, if Trump lost – to anyone, let alone a woman of colour?
Guyon Espiner is an investigative journalist and presenter at RNZ. His new TV and radio interview show is 30 With Guyon Espiner.
