It will be many years until the full economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic becomes clear. What is already plain is that we have, by discipline, common sense and trust in our leaders averted a catastrophic loss of life.
It's as well to remind ourselves that if Covid-19 had followed a similar path to the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 the virus would by now have been responsible for 45,000 deaths - of which 12,000 would have been Maori.
That's the impact if the 1918 fatality numbers are applied to the 2020 New Zealand population.
We dodged a bullet, but the price of success will be extreme vigilance at least until a vaccine is developed.
• Premium - Mike Williams: Prepare for an election worth watching
• Mike Williams: Pleasing prisoner results
• Mike Williams: Clear winner for politician of the year
• Mike Williams: Shane Jones one to watch
The only poll published during the lockdown had National slumping into the 20s with Labour support in excess of 50 per cent. Both government support parties, New Zealand First and the Green Party were above the 5 per cent threshold for seats in Parliament.
National sought to discredit this poll as it was conducted by Labour Party pollsters, UMR. I have to declare an interest as a founding director of UMR many moons ago, but I would point out that this company has a better track record at predicting election results over 30 years than any other of the polling companies.
Having made that point, it is far too early to make any kind of prediction about the September 19 General Election as there is much water to go under the political bridge.
Having spent an awful lot of time in the past weeks observing New Zealand politics, I think we can, however, discern some winners and losers – people and parties.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern cemented herself as a worthy successor to the great leaders of her more than 100-year-old Labour Party.
Her ability to communicate the often-unpalatable messages around the lockdown was beyond superb and she fully earned the international accolades that came her way.
Her personal warmth and good humour meant that she was almost certainly the only leader on the planet who could have declared the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny as essential services and got away with it.
Grant Robertson as Finance Minister moved decisively and effectively and like the PM demonstrated his ability to deliver a clear and concise message.
Very rarely for a Labour Party Minister of Finance, he received the support of many influential figures in the business community.
The sheer guile of Winston Peters was amusing and kept him not quite centre-stage but at least not in the wings. His revelation that Health Department officials initially recommended that even New Zealand citizens be stopped from returning home during the lockdown put him in the news and identified him positively with the firm but humane policies that steered the level four period.
As I wrote in these pages, I thought that the National Party Leader, Simon Bridges got off to a promising start.
However, this did not last.
The Prime Minister gifted him a platform on which he might have built his credibility as a political leader of substance but, incomprehensibly, he opted to squander the opportunity.
The Epidemic Response Committee was Simon Bridges' chance to shine but he could not seem to catch the mood of the country or even chair his committee in a fair and inclusive fashion.
He started pushing for an end to the lockdown well before most people polled thought the virus was under control, and he blatantly favoured committee members from The National Party over others when awarding the call.
Bridges' offhand treatment of Doctor Ashley Bloomfield, the Director-General of Health, was insensitive beyond belief given that the man had deservedly assumed near saint-like status in the eyes of the many thousands of voters who tuned in to his daily televised reports.
National's shadow Finance Minister, Paul Goldsmith, did no better than his leader and seemed to think that a wildly inappropriate policy of tax cuts would solve the country's post-Covid-19 economic problems.
If the UMR findings are confirmed by the TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll and the TV3 Reid Research poll in the coming weeks, a revolt in the National Party caucus is on the cards.
Those numbers threaten the career of up to 20 National MPs including Tukituki MP Lawrence Yule.
Bridges' core support in the National Party caucus is a group of economic right-wingers, social conservatives and happy-clappers who have been infiltrating the party over recent years, but they do not yet form a majority, meaning Bridges is exposed if panic sets in.
It was telling that one of the few old-style National Party urban liberals, Auckland Central MP Nikki Kaye, avoided a question on Newshub Nation about whether Bridges was sharing the National Party's internal polling with his caucus.
Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is CEO of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.