Outlook for March: drought, famine and pestilence

Okaihau dairy farmer Roger Hutchings (right) explains the "green drought" afflicting his farm to Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy. Roger and Jane Hutchings' farm, Lodore Rd, Okaih

Northland farmers could be facing an unholy period of drought, famine and pestilence - a situation made worse, not better, by recent rain.

Rather than ending the drought, the rain has added to the problems some farmers are dealing with.

Even as Northland farmers are being urged to closely monitor shrinking stock feed levels as the drought continues, the warm weather and high humidity have boosted the risk of facial eczema.

Farmers should also be vigilant about checking stock grazed off-farm for worms and other parasites.

The big dry has led to unprecedented early cuts in dairy production. Some spring-calving dairy herds that were usually milked twice a day until the end of April have been on once-a-day milking since the end of January, three months earlier than expected.

Rural spokeswoman Julie Jonker said, despite the recent rain, the pressure is far from off.

Farmers could face paying high price for autumn and winter feed.

"Lots of farmers have used up all their stock feed reserves," the Northland Rural Support Trust coordinator and multi-agency Northland Adverse Events Team (NAET) spokeswoman said.

"The question then becomes what farmers will use to feed stock as autumn and winter arrive and how will they pay for that."

Following its fifth meeting on Wednesday, the NAET said Northland farmers should make sure they have feed reserves, such as hay or silage.

"Farmers should not become complacent simply because recent rain in some areas had greened pastures," Ms Jonker said.

"We need more rain in the next two weeks to make sure that pasture growth survives. We're not out of the woods yet."

But the weather forecast indicates limited rain in the next three weeks.

Whangarei and Bream Bay are currently the driest parts of Northland, although the drought's impact continues throughout the region.

"Farmers should be regularly checking pasture facial eczema spore counts," Ms Jonker said.

The very late start to the tropical cyclone season - the latest since records began 35 years ago - has contributed to Northland's drought.

Increased tropical weather activity, such as storms, depressions and cyclones, brings warm, moisture laden air and rain into Northland from the north as these weather systems move over New Zealand's cooler temperatures.

The tropical cyclone season typically runs from about October to March but this year's season is only just beginning.

"The door to the tropics is now open but not much rain has yet arrived down here," Ms Jonker said.