Fewer stock, extra cash

The number of dairy cattle has dropped for the first time since 2005. Photo / File

The Ministry for Primary Industries predicts New Zealand's annual primary sector export revenue will increase by $1.9billion to $37.6 billion in the year ending June 2016, despite reductions in national livestock numbers and forest harvesting.

The number of dairy cattle has dropped for the first time since 2005, with provisional Statistics New Zealand figures released this week recording a total of 6.4 million dairy cattle at the end of June 2015.

"We have 300,000 fewer dairy cattle than in 2014, which is a reversal of the trend of increases in the last 10 years," Statistics' business indicators senior manager Neil Kelly said.

"Both the national dairy milking herd and the replacement herd have declined. This comes at a time of falling international prices and lower milk payouts."

The number of sheep is down by 300,000 since last year to a total of 29.5 million in June 2015. Beef cattle are down from 4.4 million in 2005 to 3.5 million in June this year, while deer numbers have dropped from 1.7 million to 907,700 over the same decade.

Exotic forest harvesting increased annually from 18.3 million cubic metres in 2005 to 26.7 million cubic metres in 2013, but has since dipped to 25.5 million cubic metres.

The provisional figures are from the 2015 Agricultural Production Survey. Final results, including regional statistics, will be available in May next year.

Meanwhile, a Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) statement this week said New Zealand's primary sector export revenue was expected to increase to $37.6 billion in the year ending June 2016, up $1.9billion from the previous 12 months.

MPI senior communications adviser Mark Hanson told The Land yesterday the ministry was unaware of Statistics NZ's figures, but confident the information it had used to produce primary sector export revenue report had produced reliable results.

The MPI report said the meat and wool sector was expected to continue its strong growth, with a forecast revenue increase of $910million to June 2016 (or 10per cent from June 2015 actual figures) due to strong United States demand for beef. New Zealand would meet its allowable beef export quota to the US this season for the first time since 2004.

Chinese demand for wool also remained strong, the ministry said.

Milk production was expected to be down 7 per cent this season compared to last, due to current dairy prices. But the ministry said prices were expected to rebound by late next year and early 2017 as current dairy stocks were worked through and demand levels increased.

The forestry sector was forecast to grow $613 million, even though Chinese demand for logs has reduced due to a continuing slowdown in the Chinese construction sector. MPI expected an increase in exported timber volumes to help offset this reduction in log exports.

The ministry expected the seafood sector to be supported by favourable climatic conditions, with the opening of two new salmon farms contributing to an expected $200 million export revenue increase in this area.

Pipfruit and wine revenues continued to grow as kiwifruit yields reached record levels and wine suppliers used past season vintages to support increasing consumer demand for New Zealand products, MPI said. The horticulture sector outlook was strong with an expected $700 million export revenue increase forecast in the June 2016 year.

The ministry said the conclusion of key trade deals, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, would help New Zealand's primary sectors towards meeting the Government's export and business growth targets.

The MPI report can be viewed online at www.mpi.govt.nz/document-vault/10571.