“As we move into the weekend that humid air does bring with it the risk of some rain,” Ferris said.
“There is that potential for showers popping up around Northland on Christmas Day.”
“The caveat here is the wet weather and warm air isn’t super aligned into a nice weather system. It’s a mess of warm air with wet weather embedded.”
That made it difficult to track the system and have a good idea of the potential for rain.
“The general outlook is that there will be some wet weather on the 24th, 25th and 26th,” he said.
He encouraged Northlanders to keep an eye on the forecast moving into the weekend as the outlook may yet shift.
Christmas is not an “absolute write-off” as there is some wiggle room for timings as well as a lack of “atmospheric support” that would be seen for high-intensity rainfall, he said.
The most likely scenario is cloud, heat, and rain coming and going with briefly heavy spells.
For those planning to celebrate on the coast, they may get lucky as rain is more likely to fall on inland areas.
“Don’t give up all hope of having an outdoor Christmas.”
Northland Regional Council has also warned there is now a moderate risk of ‘meteorological drought’ (low rainfall) over the next three months, with temperatures forecast to be above average over that period.
Northland looks to be set for warmer, drier and windier than normal. These westerly winds during summer create an elevated risk of drier-than-normal conditions in east coast areas.
Council group manager regulatory services Colin Dall said there was a moderate risk of extended dry periods in the medium term (four to six months) as El Niño conditions continued through the remainder of summer and even autumn.
“If these eventuate, Northland will likely experience some level of hydrological drought,” he said.
“The occurrence and length of any forecasted extended dry periods will largely control the occurrence, severity, length, and impact of any possible drought and council will continue to monitor and assess the situation as the information becomes available.”
He encourages people to check on leaks, keep an eye on water tank levels and think about booking water deliveries.
NIWA Meteorologist Tristan Meyers said 2023 is tracking to be the warmest year on record.
“Although the first half of December had mostly average temperatures, a sultry 33C temperature reading in North Canterbury (on Wednesday) marked a hot and humid finish to the year, helping to keep 2023 near the top of the rankings.”
“We’ll be confirming this in our annual climate summary issued early next month.”
Whangārei’s forecast for the next day features cloudy periods with a chance of showers and a high of 25C today. Tomorrow, cloud will remain, with a lower high of 24C.
Dargaville will see a high of 22C today and tomorrow, Paihia 24C today and 23C tomorrow, and Kaitāia 25C today and 24C tomorrow.
Brodie Stone is the education and general news reporter at the Advocate. Brodie has spent most of her life in Whangārei and is passionate about delving into issues that matter to Northlanders and beyond.
