That is the finding of a report commissioned by the Northland Corporate Group, a group of Te Tai Tokerau Northland businessheavyweights.
The report by specialist consultants NZIER looked at an upgrade of State Highway 1 from north Auckland, over the currently-closed Brynderwyns to Whangārei and on to Kaikohe in the heart of the Far North.
It found the so-called Northland Expressway would have a direct economic benefit in Northland of $299 million to $562m a year by 2050, due to efficiency with faster speeds, better resilience and improved safety.
But NZIER also used one of the largest business surveys ever conducted in Northland to show the overall benefits of addressing infrastructure constraints, with nearly 80 per cent of the businesses surveyed saying poor transport infrastructure is one of their top challenges.
The survey showed the total cost of the Brynderwyns closing in 2023 due storm damage was $3.3m to $14.6m per day in business costs and losses.
It showed the conventional cost-benefit analysis done by NZTA Waka Kotahi is far too conservative and understates the benefits in terms of growth and jobs.
NZIER found the expressway would grow the number of people in the region, provide cost savings to businesses, bring new jobs and investments, grow tourism and resourced-based industries, lift social outcomes and reduce poverty.
Te Tai Tokerau Northland’s annual GDP would grow by $2.1b a year and, if Northland business productivity increased by just 2.5 per cent, national GDP would increase by $1.2b a year, the report said.
NZIER put the total cost of the expressway at $5.5b to $11.1b, based on the total cost per kilometre of similar New Zealand four-laning projects. It argued this would be value for money, with GDP growing $24b from 2040 to 2060.
“The investment between Auckland and Whangārei is urgently needed to help Te Tai Tokerau Northland realise its potential and maximise its contribution to the national economy,” the report concludes. “The Whangārei to Kaikohe section should follow as the region grows.”
The report will now be used to lobby government for significant highway investment beyond what National has already committed to, which includes expressways from Warkworth to Wellsford and from Ruakākā to Whangārei, as well as a four-lane highway alternative for the Brynderwyns.
The findings of the report were presented to about 80 key stakeholders on Tuesday afternoon, with a presentation and panel discussion run by Northland Corporate Group, which includes Channel Infrastructure NZ (formerly Refining NZ), Culham Engineering, Marsden Maritime Holdings (formerly Northland Port Corporation), McKay and Northpower.
Tuesday's panel discussion included Marsden Maritime Holdings chair Murray Jagger, Whangārei mayor Vince Cucurullo and Northland Corporate Group secretary Julian Smith, who all agreed on the need for the Northern Expressway to unlock economic growth in the region. Photo / Denise Piper
Push for Northland Expressway by 2040
The report shows Northland is ripe for central government investment, Northpower CEO and Northland Corporate Group co-chair Andrew McLeod said.
“Northland is uniquely positioned to supply Auckland. We don’t want a handout, we want an economic outcome through this investment.”
The Northland Corporate Group is now advocating for the Northern Expressway to be built before 2040, when the bicentennial of the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi will be celebrated, he said.
The Kauri Museum director and former Kaipara mayor Jason Smith asked how the expressway can be approved this time, when the need for it has been talked about in Northland for decades.
Northland MP Grant McCallum answered from the floor, saying the coalition Government is very focused on getting things done and views infrastructure as a key enabler.
It has brought back in the roads of national significance - which includes several parts of the Northern Expressway - and is introducing fast-track consents, he said.
McCallum admitted the funding model is something that needed to be looked at and tolls might have to be considered, even though it is annoying they are not applied on other roads, such as the Waikato Expressway.
Transport Minister Simeon Brown was interested in hearing about realistic economic returns and the potential unlocked from roading projects, he said.
Northland Expressway benefits beyond standard transport
The NZIER report found the impacts of a Warkworth to Kaikohe four-lane expressway is far more than the standard transport appraisal, showing the impact of low-quality roading in Northland goes beyond the direct impact on drivers.
It gives the example of enabling the expansion of Northport, with international shipping companies losing interest in using the Whangārei port in 2023 due to the closure of SH1.
Annual cost savings to Northland businesses of $1.6b to $3.7b.
Annual increase in business revenue of $1.2b to $4.1b.
From 1520 to 5960 new jobs in Northland.
Unlocking investment of $13.7b to $38.3b, which businesses are too scared to invest now due to the unreliability of the road.
Correction: This article originally said the 2023 cost of the Brynderwyns closing due storm damage was $3.3m to $14.6m. That is the cost per day in losses.
Denise Piper is a news reporter for the Northern Advocate, focusing on health and business. She has more than 20 years in journalism and is passionate about covering stories that make a difference.
