Who's going to take home the Ranfurly Shield? Photo / Photosport, Elias Rodriguez
By Jonty Dine of RNZ
It’s provincial footy season, and while there will be the usual questions of who the breakout stars will be and what former All Blacks can restake their claim, the prevailing interest will inevitably fall on a certain slab of English Oak and sterling silver.
Perhaps the most prestigious and coveted prize in New Zealand Rugby, besides the Web Ellis Trophy. Introduced in 1904, the shield has sat centre stage for some of the greatest matches played on this country’s fields. While fanfare surrounding Super Rugby has dwindled badly in the last decade, and the glory days of the NPC are long dead, the passion, pride, and parochialism the shield evokes ensure that from Kaitāia to Bluff, the game’s heart still beats.
The Taranaki Bulls brought an end to Tasman’s historic inaugural Shield run in Nelson on October 6, breaking Mako hearts with a 42-29 victory.
They have since defended it twice against Heartland opposition, 78-7 over King Country, and 97-0 over Thames Valley. Taranaki will have to see off five more challenges in 2025 in order to lock the shield away for summer. It’s a tough road to securing the shield for Taranaki, but not beyond the realms. Bay of Plenty and Hawke’s Bay will no doubt present formidable challenges in New Plymouth.
Okay, so let’s assume no side will defend the shield this season, and it changes hands at every opportunity. Where does it end up?
All right, so that’s a bit extreme, so let’s look at a more likely potential outcome.
If Taranaki beat Northland but lost to Waikato in round four, the Mooloos would have a relatively comfortable first defence against Southland and then a slightly tougher assignment against North Harbour before a final round defence against Northland. Waikato will end 2025 with three successful defences with the shield to reside in Hamilton.
Taranaki will see off Northland and Waikato, but their reign will be ended at the hands of Bay of Plenty. The Steamers will hold it for less than a week, though, with Hawke’s Bay spoiling the party in Tauranga. The Magpies will prevail in the battle of the bays and will then need just one defence in order to lock away the shield post-season, against Auckland, which they will do in dramatic fashion at McLean Park with a try on the siren.
RNZ’s predicted summer home for the Ranfurly Shield - Napier.
Holders - Five defences vs Northland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, and Wellington.
Second chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, Southland beat Waikato in week five, Canterbury beat Southland in week six, Canterbury defend against Tasman in week seven and Otago in week eight, Taranaki challenge Canterbury in week ten.
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland in week two, Tasman beat Northland in week three, Otago beat Tasman in week five, Otago defend against Northland, Taranaki challenge Otago in week seven.
Challenge - Taranaki in week one.
Second chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, defend against Southland and North Harbour, Northland challenge Waikato in week 10.
Third chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, defend against Southland in week five, North Harbour beat Waikato in week seven, Northland challenge North Harbour in week eight.
Challenge - Taranaki in week four
Second chance - Bay of Plenty beat Taranaki in week five and Hawke’s Bay in week seven, Waikato challenge Bay of Plenty in week nine.
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland beat Northland in week two, Manawatu beat Southland in week three, Manawatu beat Wellington in week four, Waikato challenge Manawatu in week six.
Challenge - Taranaki in week six
Second chance - Wellington beat Taranaki in week nine, Bay of Plenty challenge Wellington in week 10
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland, lose to Tasman in week three, Tasman defend against Otago, Auckland beat Tasman in week six, Manawatu beat Auckland in week seven, Bay of Plenty challenge Manawatu in week eight.
Challenge - Taranaki in week eight
Second chance - Bay of Plenty beat Taranaki in week six, Hawke’s Bay challenge Bay of Plenty in week seven.
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland and Tasman, Hawke’s Bay challenge Northland in week five.
Challenge - Taranaki in week nine
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland beat Northland in week two, Manawatu beat Southland in week three, Wellington challenge Manawatu in week four.
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland, Tasman and Hawke’s Bay, Wellington challenge Northland in week seven.
Best chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, defend against Southland, North Harbour challenge Waikato in week seven.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland in week two, lose to Tasman in week three, Otago beat Tasman in week five, defend against Northland and Taranaki, North Harbour challenge Otago in week nine.
Best chance - Hawke’s Bay beat Taranaki in week eight, Auckland challenge Hawke’s Bay in week nine.
Second chance - Bay of Plenty beat Taranaki in week six, Hawke’s Bay beat Bay of Plenty in week seven, Auckland challenge Hawke’s Bay in week nine.
Best chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland, Tasman beat Northland in week three, defend against Otago, Auckland and Waikato, Counties Manukau challenge Tasman in week ten.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland beat Northland in week two, defend against Manawatu and Canterbury, Counties Manukau challenge Southland in week seven.
Best chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland beat Northland in week two, Manawatu challenge Southland in week three.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in round one, defend against Southland in week two, Tasman beat Northland in week three, defend against Otago, Auckland beat Tasman in week six, Manawatu challenge Auckland in week seven.
Best chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland in week two, Tasman challenge Northland in week three.
Second chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, Southland beat Waikato in week five, Canterbury beat Southland in week six, Tasman challenge Canterbury in week seven.
Best chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, Southland beat Waikato in week five, Canterbury challenge Southland in week six.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland, Tasman, Hawke’s Bay and Wellington, Canterbury challenge Northland in week nine.
Best chance - Hawke’s Bay beat Taranaki in week eight, Auckland beat Hawke’s Bay in week nine, Otago challenge Auckland in week 10.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland in week two, lose to Tasman in week three, Otago challenge Tasman week five.
Best chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, Southland challenge Waikato in week five.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland challenge Northland in week two.
Scott Barrett**, Beauden Barrett**, Jordie Barrett**, Kaylum Boshier, Logan Crowley, Hemopo Cunningham, Meihana Grindlay, Harry Hansen*, Josh Jacomb, Josh Lord, Perry Lawrence, Adam Lennox, Michael Loft, Brayton Northcott-Hill, Mitch O’Neill, Reuben O’Neill, Jesse Parete, JJ Pokai, Arese Poliko, Jared Proffit, Taniela Rakuro*, Daniel Rona, Willem Ratu, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Leone Nawai, Obey Samate, Fiti Sa, Jayden Sa, Josh Setu, Bradley Slater, Vereniki Tikoisolomone, Tupou Vaa’i**, Sage Walters-Hansen*, Keightley Watson*.
*yet to debut
**All Black
Northland
Week one
Saturday, August 2
7.10pm
Waikato
Week four
Saturday, August 23
2.05pm
Bay of Plenty
Week six
Sunday, September 7
2.05pm
Hawke’s Bay
Week eight
Friday, September 19
7.10pm
Wellington
Week nine
Saturday, September 27
2.05pm