The presence of one horse changes everything.
Thanks to a massively popular change of plans, the Rush Munro's Hawke's Bay Spring Racing Carnival will get the conclusion it deserves in tomorrow's feature race - local champion Jimmy Choux will line up in Hawke's Bay's flagship race. The Cox Plate favourite has transformed the race from an anticlimax to an event not to be missed by racing fans on either side of the Tasman.
The group one $300,000 New Zealand Bloodstock Insurance Spring Classic is the showpiece event of the carnival.
But this year appeared set to be a disappointing exception with Jimmy Choux, having exhilarated Hastings crowds with outstanding performances on the first two days of the carnival, set to miss the race in order to be at his absolute peak for his main assignment at Moonee Valley on October 22.
It just wouldn't have been the same without him.
Jimmy Choux will run in the Spring Classic and give his fans in Hawke's Bay and throughout New Zealand one more chance to see him before he makes his bid for glory in Melbourne.
And it may be our last chance to see him full stop. A highly lucrative breeding career beckons, and if Jimmy Choux performs as well as we know he can in the Cox Plate and later in Hong Kong, his value may soar to such heights that it would be insane to risk him on the racetrack.
If this does prove to be Jimmy's New Zealand swan song, most expect him to go out on a massive high. At $1.60 he is one of the hottest favourites in Spring Classic history. His minuscule odds make even the great Princess Coup's second win, regarded as almost a foregone conclusion in the week before the race, seem almost unexpected by comparison at odds of $2.20.
And it's hard to disagree with that confidence. If there's any negative around the fact that Jimmy Choux is running tomorrow, it's the fact that he's scared away the competition. It's fair to say the horses lining up against the reigning Horse of the Year are a depleted bunch.
Lion Tamer and Scarlett Lady crossed the ditch after the Makfi Challenge Stakes.
The connections of outstanding Mufhasa, Wall Street and Fleur De Lune - all better suited to shorter distances - perhaps realised that if their star gallopers couldn't beat Jimmy at 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate they were forlorn hopes over 2040m.
Confidence around the chances of a hometown win tomorrow only grows when you consider the reason for the change of plans and the decision to run in the race. Trainer John Bary said the Windsor Park Plate had taken so little out of Jimmy Choux that he was going to need another race. If his Windsor Park demolition was that effortless, it's scary to think what he's capable of if fully extended.
But it's often said there are no such things as certainties in racing, and many might point to Balmuse's stunning defeat of Australian champion Starcraft in this race in 2004 as proof.
If the luck doesn't go Jimmy's way, there are horses in the field that are capable of pulling off a similarly massive upset this year. We all know how good Red Ruler is when he's at his best, and Hold It Harvey is set to improve on his mighty race for third in the Windsor Park Plate.
Dual group one-winner Booming also finished strongly in that race and is looking to provide trainer Jeff Lynds with a remarkable third consecutive win in this race after Vosne Romanee in 2009 and Wall Street last year. Auckland Cup winner Titch is extraordinarily versatile, having a sprint win over 1400m and several victories over hurdles to his name, and he carries the same colours as Balmuse in 2004.
But for every Balmuse-esque upset there's an Xcellent or a Princess Coup procession. Many great horses have won the Spring Classic and Jimmy Choux belongs in that company. Barring bad luck, it's hard to see anyone standing in his way.
Selections
Race 1: Roi d'Jeu, Six O'Clock News, Smoking Chimneys.
Race 2: Yin Yang Master, Whitby, Ted'll Do.
Race 3: Royal Queen, Capital Diamond, Universal Music.
Race 4: Yourein, Red Mafia, Nuits St Georges.
Race 5: Crocodile Canyon, Affairoftheheart, Dancing Diamond.
Race 6: Antonio Lombardo, Ginner Hart, Estrato.
Race 7: He's Remarkable, Fritzy Boy, Twilight Savings.
Race 8: Lady Kipling, Shandream, Chaparral Lass.
Race 9: Jimmy Choux, Hold It Harvey, Red Ruler.
Race 10: The Hombre, Miss Thorn, Rampant.