Two Napier MPs would be a longshot

National Party candidate, Wayne Walford. Photo / Paul Taylor

If September's election result reflects current polling, there could be two Napier-based MPs in the next Parliament.

That situation would arise if Labour candidate Stuart Nash wins the seat ahead of National's Wayne Walford, but Mr Walford secures a place in Parliament as a list MP.

Mr Walford is ranked 63rd on National's list, released on Sunday. According to an analysis by right-wing blogger David Farrar, Mr Walford is effectively the 22nd candidate on the list assuming all sitting National MPs were returned, and candidates retain all the seats currently held by retiring National MPs.

That placing would be enough to get him a list seat provided National picked up at least 49.7 per cent of the party vote, according to Mr Farrar's analysis.

National is polling at over 50 per cent in major polls but political observers expect the party's support base to fall back by the time of the September 20 election.

On Radio New Zealand yesterday, right-wing commentator Matthew Hooton said National had "no expectation of getting more than 47 per cent" while Former Labour Party president and Hawke's Bay Today columnist Mike Williams said National would need "an unpredicted landslide" for Mr Walford to win a list seat.

Asked about the prospect of both Napier candidates entering parliament, Mr Nash said: "I think the more representation the better. When Chris [Tremain] was the MP and I was a list MP [from 2008 to 2011] I thought it worked well because the more representatives in Wellington the better."

Mr Walford agreed two MPs based in the city would be good for Napier.

"If we've got two then we've got representation for the whole region, which would be fantastic, but we'll see how the polls go."

Meanwhile, in the neighbouring Tukituki electorate, Labour candidate Anna Lorck said sitting National MP Craig Foss's high list ranking presented "a great opportunity for Tukituki to get two MPs into Parliament and have a stronger voice".

Cabinet minister Mr Foss is ranked 17 on the partly list.

"Now with Craig safe on the list a vote for Craig is wasted in the seat," Ms Lorck said.

Mr Foss said under MMP "the party vote is the vote that decides the government, fullstop".

He said Ms Lorck seemed to be saying "don't vote for Labour but vote for me". That implied a lack of unity within Labour, which was also reflected in Mr Nash and Ms Lorck not being on their party's list, he said.

Mr Nash and Ms Lorck said yesterday they had declined to be considered for the Labour list.