Mike Williams.
OPINION:
The general election this year looks like a return to what is normal under the MMP system – a closely fought contest.
I was not entirely surprised that Jacinda Ardern had decided to retire.
Our now-former Prime Minister has a full and satisfying life outside of politics and reached a height of political success not attained by either of her predecessors, John Key or Helen Clark, with her landslide majority win in the 2020 poll.
I was close enough to Prime Ministers in the past to know that the job is certainly the most demanding and time-consuming imaginable, and it leaves little room for human commitments, which are ultimately far more important than any political achievement.
Some years ago, when I complained of Labour Party matters dominating my every waking moment, a wise old friend saw fit to remind me that “on your deathbed, it won’t be the Labour Party holding your hand”.
History will rate Jacinda as one of our best leaders. Who else has coped with a grindingly long pandemic, a terrorist massacre and a fatal volcanic eruption, just in their five years in office? She leaves the place in good shape.
We are the only country to have reported a reduced death rate during the pandemic, and New Zealand now has an enviably low national debt by international standards – half of that of Australia - which should give Finance Minister Grant Robertson the necessary leeway to bring the country through the projected recession with minimal damage.
Perhaps the most important part of her legacy is that we now monitor and publish the level of child poverty. This will force future governments of whatever colour to attend to a problem which shapes this country’s future in many ways.
The new Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins, was selected as the Labour candidate for Remutaka for the 2008 general election by a panel I chaired.
I recall that his selection as the candidate was somewhat unexpected – the outgoing MP was reputed to be supporting another candidate – but Chris won over sufficient support among the local party members to win the contest.
He, like Paul Keating, may out turn out to be the most dangerous of politicians – one with the ability to come from behind in the home straight. Let’s see.
Chris Hipkins has done well at building support in his electorate. Between 2008 and 2020, he has grown his candidate vote from 39 per cent to 68 per cent.
He, too, has faced serious challenges, not the least from the weather.
It was utterly staggering to see the apparently capricious damage done to Hawke’s Bay by Cyclone Gabrielle.
There are orchards in which I picked fruit as a teenager that are now under tonnes of silt, while others not far off look untouched.
It seems likely that climate change will generate more frequent natural disasters, and the only positive aspect of this destruction is that the clean-up will generate economic activity that no political party can sensibly oppose.
At this time in the electoral cycle, it’s interesting to speculate on each of the smaller parties’ aims and their possible roles in the event of a close contest.
The Greens will be looking to hold on to their 10 per cent of the party vote, and for Chlöe Swarbrick to hold on to Auckland Central. The Greens will hope that their support will be required for a third-term Labour-led government.
The Act Party will have comparable aims - to hold on to their 10 per cent of the party vote and form a coalition with a National-led government.
Act leader David Seymour has made the most of the National Party’s party vote collapse in the 2020 general election, which delivered him 10 MPs, and polling demonstrates that still-weakened support for National could well deliver Act a similar outcome.
Recent polling suggests that Te Pati Māori is well-placed to be the pivot party, which decides who governs in the event of a close result.
With the retirement of Tamati Coffey as the Labour Party candidate in the Māori electorate of Waiariki, Te Pati co-leader Rawiri Waititi is more likely to retain the seat and validate however many List MPs the party earns via its party vote.
This party will be aware that its previous support for a National-led government led to its demise as a parliamentary party in 2017, but will be likely to keep its options open, even if that costs votes.
The indestructible Winston Peters will try to revive the NZ First Party yet again, but for this election, seems to have written off support for a re-elected Labour-led government.
The usual pundit advice is “never write Winston off”, but polling has NZ First well under the 5 per cent trigger point for party vote seats.
Winston, just like Act’s David Seymour, will be hoping that National recovers some of its vore, but not too much.
Mike Williams grew up in Hawke’s Bay and is an NZ Howard League director and former Labour Party president.