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Home / Hawkes Bay Today

Populist rage not on for Kiwis

By Patrick O'Sullivan
Business editor·Hawkes Bay Today·
11 Mar, 2017 11:12 PM8 mins to read

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New Zealand's social harmony and enthusiasm for the status quo is keeping populism from at bay, says fund manger Josephine Linden. PHOTO/SUPPLIED

New Zealand's social harmony and enthusiasm for the status quo is keeping populism from at bay, says fund manger Josephine Linden. PHOTO/SUPPLIED

Mary-Jeanne Peabody's bad experience at a rock concert was an apt introduction for the first speaker at the Craggy Range Speaker Series recently.

A Rage Against the Machine concert gave the Craggy Range Vineyards director an early insight into insurrection, she told the Craggy Range Winery audience in Havelock North.

"It was so aggressive, so angry, with head-butting and I thought there was going to be some sort of fight," she said.

"I dropped further and further back into the audience - I was quite fearful.

"When the band finished it was all high fives, hugs and absolute joy. I couldn't believe what I was witnessing.

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"People don't always needed a reason for revolution, there is actually a certain joy in rebellion and rage.

"Is that what we are seeing around the world with Brexit, Trump, and even Pauline Hanson a true historical watershed and if so what does that mean for New Zealand. Or are we just watching another bad band?"

Addressing the question was Australian-born Josephine Linden, founder and chief executive of Linden Global Strategies, a wealth-management advisory firm based in New York.

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She said people across Europe and the United States were voting for radical change as evidenced by the United States presidential election result and Brexit.

With eight European elections looming this year, plus New Zealand's, the spectre of a populist revolt was a pertinent topic to tackle.

Ms Linden said it was a remarkable time in history.

"The leader of the free world is now a Democrat-turned-Republican populist businessman who has never before held a day of political office," she said.

"Indeed there has not been a previous United States President who has not served his country either in government or the military before assuming the mantle of the presidency.

"The scenario is surreal, and yet it is a sign of the thirst for change in the populist times that we live in."

She gave an academic definition of populism as "a thin ideology whose advocates consider themselves as ordinary but pure people versus a corrupt elite and who use the ideology to explain the world and justify specific agendas".

"The term dates back to the 1890s when America's Populist movement pitted rural populations and the Democratic Party against the more urban and educated Republicans.

"Oh how things have changed in America."

By the 1950s the term was used to describe a myriad of platforms from fascist and Communist movements in Europe to America's anti-Communist McCarthyites and Argentinian Peronistas, she said.

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Today populism had many guises adapted to suit local conditions "and the fears of the local electorate".

"Our gracious host may believe I actually have an edge in understanding Trump, the most recent example of example of populism, because back in New York City my office directly overlooks Trump Tower - the White House of the North - and its embodiment of the latest wave of populism.

"Perhaps you believe I may have the answer because my every day activities are assessing global economies and protecting our clients' capital from the ebbs and flows of the market.

"Of course the real answer lies in the movement of people, across cities, across states and across countries."

Blue-collar America in some states suffered increasing social disparity and their resentment helped explain why voters in that part of America largely abandoned the Democrat Party.

They also felt government and corporations presided over the rise of new monopolies concentrating wealth in fewer companies and cities.

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While globalisation had numerous positive effects, there were negatives.

"The decline of American manufacturing, the decline of whole towns and the setback to families and communities that were previously progressing up the economic ladder.

"In addition Liberal environmental policies have been viewed as ruining the opportunity for jobs in building pipelines and in the coal industry and no remedy appears on site.

"Trump's catchphrase of Make America Great Again has played at the heartstrings of those families who remember better times and who yearn to return to them."

The social template could be used to explain Brexit where the older generation and rural Britain voiced their patriotism and why "in every election the free world last year, with one exception, the existing leadership was cast asunder."

The one exception was Australia.

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Hillary Clinton's campaign slogan Stronger Together was a message of diversity and inclusion but it alienated many in middle American. They viewed it as excluding them and their way of life, while Trump's catchphrase and promises struck a chord.

"That is why the media, the pollsters, the academics and the elites all got it wrong, even to the night of the election.

"No wonder - where were they sitting? In those populated, well-educated and affluent cities along those two coasts and far away from the discontented heartland. The so-called flyover states."

Trump spoke to people deep in debt, underemployed and lacking hope and spoke to a "national religion of celebrity fame".

"This is the new American dream, to defeat the odds and all of your opponents, to make it big as a celebrity, to win the X Factor, American Idol, Celebrity Apprentice.

"The last elections can simply be summed up in the reality show expression, you're hired."

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Trump turned existing conventions and attitudes "upside down" but when serious news was thought to be in decline its consumption jumped 37 per cent last year, compared with a 10 per cent fall in professional football consumption.

The perspective of a fund manager in the Trump era was "quite simple".

"Close your eyes, hide the name of the President and throw aside any judgement of character, and what do we have? A pro-business Republican Senate, a Republican House, a Republican President.

"There are proposals in the making: lower corporate tax rate, repatriate revenue, eliminate burdensome regulations, build major infrastructure projects and create jobs, jobs, jobs.

"You can see why this kind of political and economic climate will make you run to invest in the United States."

When addressing whether populism could sweep New Zealand Ms LINDEN again cited an academic's five basic ingredients of populism: immigration, a recent financial crisis, increase in inequality, a sense of corruption in the economic and political establishment and the presence of a demagogue.

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The UK and US had all five, she said, New Zealand only one. It has one of the highest percentages of foreign-born residents - over 25 per cent of the population was born overseas, with about a third of those from Asia.

The Global Financial Crisis affected New Zealand a lot less than other Western nations and inequity was less.

"For example this country is ranked higher in terms of general academic and attainment. Higher than Australia and significantly higher than the United States."

The lack of turnover in New Zealand's leaders "seems to be a telling gauge in terms of the level of confidence you have annual governments and leaders".

New Zealand also lacked a populist leader.

"I do not believe New Zealanders would have the patience for such a demagogue and you seem to have much better judgement than to take a personality such as Trump very seriously.

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"In this country your leaders seems to care so much about peaceful transition that somebody [Key] actually retired on their own terms. Quite incredible."

With only one of the five ingredients the country's chance of a populist movement assuming power was very low.

The decision to keep the current flag was a victory for the status quo.

"One could say that the model here allows for a more sustainable and a stable democracy in the 21st century. Much more so than in the US and the UK. And the reason is very simple, because the model here is built on greater equality and less division that is obviously so apparent in the UK and America."

"Radical change is not part of your mentality, rather there is a level-headedness and equanimity. These two traits greatly differ from many other Western countries at this time and I believe John Key has exemplified this when he stepped down, because he knew that his action was the best way to maintain stability and move forward."

The two vital elements of democracy - the rights of minority and the rule of law - were ingrained in the fabric of New Zealand "and that is one of the reasons this country has harmony".

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"That is the greatest bulwark against a rise of populism and the downfall of this way of life we hold so dear."

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