Plan to head for hills not safe enough

A CONFESSION: I don't have a tsunami-escape plan. And I really should - based on the tsunami maps released by the Hawke's Bay Regional Council last week, I'm right in the "don't kid yourself, there's no chance" zone.

A 5m wave from a distant-source tsunami would see me swimming in 3-5m of water, while a 10m wave from a near source would send wave depths of more than 5m my way.

And the worrying part is that I could only have 20 minutes to get away. Often I need a good 10 minutes to find my car keys.

In Hawke's Bay most of us would be in a tsunami's firing line - there's not a lot of high ground, certainly not within fleeing distance of the coast. And what worries me is that the only plan I have worked out is probably the same as everyone else's in Napier: head for the hill.

With only 20 minutes to get out of harm's way, will I end up in a massive log jam of people all trying to get up the same hill at once?

But then, the regional council adds helpfully, I might not be able to use my car at all. Roads may be quake-damaged, which means I'll be fleeing the wave on bike or foot. That doesn't make me feel any more confident.

A major tsunami is unlikely - the maps were for a worst-case scenario, a one-in-2500-years event. But it's not unlikely we'll be affected by some kind of natural disaster at some time, and yet many - like me - are unprepared.

It's hard to plan for something when the variables are so unknown: Where will I be when it strikes? Will I get instructions on what to do? Will there be time to pack? If so, what will I need? That's still no excuse not to have a plan, just as there's no excuse for my survival kit to be somewhat incomplete.

So at the least, I will work on identifying the nearby safe zones and how to get there. And find a reliable place to keep my keys.