Opinion: Will crisis leadership get Labour over the line?

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Opinion

112 days until an election that, until this week, hid in the shadow of a pandemic bubble.

Bear in mind it was only roughly 75 days ago that we began to realise Covid-19 might be worth taking seriously. March 16 and the viral tsunami was on the horizon.

A week later, and we were locked, and down.

112 days will blow by like a dry orchard leaf on a winter southerly.

In Hawke's Bay on Friday, in the red corner, was Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern flanked by her incumbent and aspiring politicians, cloistered together for photo opportunities.

Down the road in Central Hawke's Bay, Lawrence Yule - recently promoted up the party list by the leader he backed in the coup vote, was hosting National MPs at the Chook and Filly Pub in Maraekakaho to hear from struggling Hawke's Bay farmers.

Disgruntled drought-weary farmers and Opposition National MPs? Peas in a pod.

That, Simon, is not the smell of success. Not leadership success, at least.

There was no photographer lurking for Yule and co - that's what happens when media organisations choose where they send their resources. You follow the leader.

Ardern chose Napier from which to announced a significant recovery package for the arts.

Post Covid-19 economic recovery will become an election issue, there is no avoiding it.

Critics have already had the obligatory crack, opining that Labour hit the Covid-19 nail on the head with a sledgehammer. Australia took a less destructive economic approach, why didn't we, they said.

There are two problems with that argument, which led to it petering out.

a) These days, your average dyed in the Romney wool post-war Kiwi has a gastric reflux reaction to any suggestion we should be following the Aussies.

b) We'll never know if Labour shut the country/economy down too quickly because, while we can compare the approaches of various countries, there is no New Zealand baseline to compare it to - we just don't know.

A Labour cluster, in Napier this week.

The other question many voters are contemplating is whether they re-elect Ardern and co based on a term dominated by good leadership that wasn't necessarily political.

Christchurch. White Island. Covid 19. Ardern has excelled in crisis leadership.

And while there is an argument that everything a politician says is political, Ardern's excellence has not necessarily been demonstrated through her party's policies, per se.

Ardern probably deserves some extra credit for coping with the loose co-leadership cannons fired by Winston Peters and Shane Jones.

Peters has been largely absent from the forefront of the Covid-19 crisis. He is smart enough to realise there are horses for courses, and Covid-19 was a race he didn't need to commentate on.

Peters is also an old-school, combative MP. Covid-19 was not his bag.

Speaking of gigs, the Provincial Growth Fund kite still has some dollars in it.

And the riches that have flowed forth in the past three years will be examined in the coming months - what has the PGF achieved?

Politicians are generally challenged to put their money where their mouths are.

When you have a mouth as big as Shane Jones and a bag of PGF cash as large as his, there is potential for a magnificent cluster-bomb of bombast, rhetoric and unfulfilled promises.

But Jones the Banker has mostly delivered. What was created with the money - jobs, regional economic wealth - is what voters will want to know next.

Leadership is a challenge for the National Party right now too.

Amateur political pundits on the periphery of "those in the know" are wondering why anyone would want the poisoned chalice of Opposition Leader going into an election in just 112 days.

National Party leader Todd Muller (pronounced 'fullah') is high vis now but will that still be the case post election?

Wouldn't it make sense to let the incumbent fall on his sword, potentially, and then give yourself a three-year run into the next election?

Todd Muller backed himself, and got across the internal party line. But the odds on Christopher Luxon leading National by the 2023 election might be worth a lazy fiver.

That's a punt Winston Peters might even be eyeing.