Opinion: National needs economic credibility

Tukituki MP Lawrence Yule with newly-elected National Party leader Judith Collins. Photo / Supplied

When former National Party president Michelle Boag emailed the details of Covid-19 patients to National MP Hamish Walker and health spokesman Michael Woodhouse, she could have had no idea that the result of this idiocy would be the end of Todd Muller's short tenure as National Party leader and the emergence of Judith Collins as leader in his place.

I doubt that, in her heart of hearts, Judith Collins welcomes this turn of events. With the carefully timed publication of her autobiography, I think that she was positioning herself to pick up the pieces after her party's defeat in the September election.

She now has just a few weeks to turn around a huge polling deficit and make some progress against one of the most effective and popular prime ministers this country has seen.

Her leadership may survive an "honourable defeat" where a loss of seats is limited but not the kind of trouncing National suffered in 2002 when it got 21 per cent of the Party Vote.

As CEO of the Howard League, I met Judith Collins when she was Corrections minister some years ago. I praised her in this column for her initiative in extending the time women prisoners could have their babies in jail with them and getting the necessary funding during tight spending times.

This was something for which she took no public credit, presumably because it might undermine the tough "crusher" image she cultivated.

I was impressed at her grasp of the issues in her Corrections portfolio and our discussion around the absence of drivers' licences amongst prisoners was one of the reasons for the development of the Howard League's now highly successful post-release driver's licence programme.

Former National Party leader Todd Muller at the Maraekakaho Community Hall in June.

Judith Collins will need to overcome some serious barriers if she is to succeed, and the first is economic credibility.

For as long as I can remember polls have told us that a majority of voters believe that National is better at running the economy than Labour.

This assumption underpinned Todd Muller's brief sortie into campaigning but it is no longer true, thanks to Finance Minister Grant Robertson's financial management and communication skills.

An IPSOS poll published by TVNZ showed that concern about the economy had shot up since March and that Labour now outscored National 47 per cent to 32 per cent as economic managers.

Her second problem will be uniting the National Party caucus which is currently behaving more like a rabble than a team. The scandal around Andrew Falloon should never have happened.

This is a young and promising first term MP who talked openly of his demons in his maiden speech. He obviously needed mentoring and supervision from old hands in the National Party organisation. This was not forthcoming.

As late as last Saturday, National Party caucus members were still leaking to TV3's Tova O'Brien. This alone is a sure sign of a disunited party unfit to govern.

Judith Collins will need to carefully recalibrate her party's position on the still worsening Covid-19 pandemic. Nationals' repeated advocacy of a softer Australian-style lockdown has been utterly discredited by developments in Melbourne where just such a strategy has backfired disastrously and will result in much worse economic damage than New Zealand will suffer.

I was staggered to see that this lesson has not been learned and Collins' newly minted health spokesman, Shane Reti, is talking about opening our borders.

An admittedly unscientific phone-in poll by a radio station was 90 per cent plus against such a move, and it is plainly vote-losing to speculate on this until the Covid-19 tide turns internationally or a vaccine is available.

National will also need to get a more effective presence on the ground if it is not to be defeated in the special votes again.

It was telling that Tukituki's Lawrence Yule featured on national television ripping down some Todd Muller hoardings. This is negative publicity a candidate in a marginal electorate needs like a hole in the head. Wasn't there a supporter who could have done this job for Yule?

As of last Wednesday, there were still Todd Muller hoardings on SH16 in the Helensville electorate.

National and Judith Collins will also have to become more rigorous in policy development. I was with a group of seasoned rail executives last week who were chortling at National's idea of a tunnel through the Brynderwyn hills between Auckland and Whangarei.

They said that no one in their right mind tries to tunnel through the kind of geology that makes up the Brynderwyns, and that it would be infinitely cheaper and much quicker to go around the hills.

With nearly a quarter of the National Party caucus departing, including some of the best and brightest, Judith Collins needs time to build an effective, united team.

- Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is CEO of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president.