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Home / Hawkes Bay Today

NZ revolt on hold, for now

By Patrick O'Sullivan
Business editor·Hawkes Bay Today·
3 Mar, 2017 09:42 PM3 mins to read

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Craggy Range speakers Rebecca Thomas (L) and Josephine Linden are optimistic for New Zealand.

Craggy Range speakers Rebecca Thomas (L) and Josephine Linden are optimistic for New Zealand.

The spectre of a populist revolt in New Zealand is unlikely in the short term, speakers at the fifth annual Craggy Range Speaker Series on Friday said.

Craggy Range Winery chairman Terry Peabody said populism was topical due to the election of United States President Donald Trump.

The US-born Australian told the tale of a US farmer describing Mr Trump as a "post tortoise".

"When you're driving down a country road and you see a fence post with a tortoise balanced on top, that's a post tortoise.

"You know he didn't get up there by himself. He doesn't belong there, he doesn't know what to do while he is up there, he is beyond his ability to function and you just wonder what kind of dumb-ass has put him there."

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Speakers were asked to speak on the rise of populism overseas, the risk of populist revolt and what effect the political disruption might have on New Zealand.

First speaker, to the audience of almost 300 in a marquee amongst vines, was Josephine Linden, whose New York office overlooks Trump Tower.

Australian-born, she is founder and chief executive of Linden Global Strategies, a wealth-management advisory firm.

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Managing $4billion, including Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's nest egg, she was a partner and managing director of Goldman Sachs in the United States for 25 years.

She said in a world of "post-tortoism" people were voting for radical change.

"We all need to be on our guard to avoid the risk of this movement here," she said.

Globalisation benefits "far outweighed" negatives but whole towns declined in the United States with a decline in manufacturing. Liberal environmental policies were viewed as a barrier to new jobs and President Trump's campaign appealed to peoples' wish to turn the clock back.

Serious news reporting in the United States was thought to be in serious decline but consumption increased 37 per cent while football fell about 10 per cent.

New Zealand's stable political landscape indicated a trust in government, making populism less likely as did the lack of "a Trump".

"I do not believe New Zealanders would have the patience for such a demagogue."

Second speaker was Mint Asset Management director and chief executive Rebecca Thomas, one few women to head a funds management operation in London.

She said New Zealand did have a demagogue, Winston Peters, and if growing income and asset inequities were not addressed "we will have some issues".

Brexit was a simple rebuke of the European Union and a desire for greater sovereignty.

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Brexit and Trump's landslide win were a result of poor recovery from the Global Financial Crisis, unlike New Zealand which only experienced "a stutter".

Social media had a business model based on "people saying outrageous things rather than multiple sources and verification around facts".

"That is having a big impact on how young people are feeling and whether society is working for them."

The political divide between left and right was blurred because voting patterns were changing across demographics.

President Trump's congress was also Republican but it would still be a check on his changes, with the promise of more manufacturing jobs was a big challenge.

"You can't build a wall to keep out the robots."

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If the US and China entered a trade war "then we might get caught in the crossfire".

As a safeguard New Zealand should concentrate on greater trade with Asia and new markets.

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