Simon Bridges stated that he will not enter into any arrangement with The New Zealand First Party in post-election negotiations. Photo / File
Simon Bridges stated that he will not enter into any arrangement with The New Zealand First Party in post-election negotiations. Photo / File
It looks like 2020 will be a truly interesting year in New Zealand politics.
In the 2017 general election, we went against the international trend which produced Donald Trump, Brexit and some alarmingly authoritarian governments in Europe, India and other usually tolerant places when we elected a progressive coalition.
Thisis not the first time New Zealand has swum against the tide, and on several occasions our direction has proven to be visionary – think free compulsory education, votes for women and social security.
The opening salvos of the election campaign were fired by and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National Party Leader Simon Bridges last week.
The Prime Minister cannily opened with a very large commitment to infrastructure spending which simultaneously underlined her government's responsible stewardship of the New Zealand economy and left the National Party floundering for a response.
Many of the projects announced, like those in health and education, were population-growth driven and well overdue. Although he largely avoided the limelight, this was a moment of achievement for Finance Minister Grant Robertson.
As a wealthy (and normally National-voting) friend pointed out to me, this is the third "Southern Man to manage the chequebook" (following Sir Michael Cullen and Sir Bill English) and he reminded that not only has Grant Robertson produced surpluses, he's also resumed contributions to the Cullen Fund.
Simon Bridges' choice of an opening shot, the refusal to enter into any arrangement with The New Zealand First Party in post-election negotiations, will be either a stroke of genius or an act of extreme folly depending on how the numbers fall in September 19.
John Key made the same commitment in 2008 which contributed in NZ First falling below the 5 per cent threshold for seats in parliament in the general election of that year.
At that time, however, John Key was riding high in the preferred Prime Minister stakes and there were live accusations of financial misdoings by the NZ First Party around a donation from Owen Glenn.
This National Party Leader, by any measure, has yet to demonstrate the magnetism and charisma of a John Key, and he can't accuse New Zealand First of financial shenanigans while events surrounding a National Party donation of $100,000 are progressing towards a trial courtesy of the Serious Fraud Office.
Bridges' gamble that the NZ First party vote can be driven below 5 per cent is, in my view, a rash one.
The latest internal Labour Party poll conducted in late January, before Jacinda's infrastructure announcement, matched the a poll of late last year by putting NZ First support at 8 per cent.
That Winston Peters' campaigning skills have usually contributed to a lift in support for his party as elections near should also be taken into consideration.
If NZ First does win seats, then National and Simon Bridges will need to get very close to 50 per cent of the party vote which history tells us is not likely.
Bridges talks of "only needing another six or seven MPs", but this is a target that neither Helen Clark nor John Key managed at the very height of their considerable powers.
A fascinating battle between New Zealand First and National now looms for the Northland Electorate.
Having lost the seat to Winston in a 2015 byelection, the National candidate won it back by a narrow margin of fewer than 1400 votes in the 2017 general election.
Shane Jones is widely rumoured to be considering standing for Northland in this year's general election.
He should.
He was born in the electorate, lives there and stood as a Labour candidate in 2008.
In 2017 more than 10,000 Northlanders voted for Labour or Green candidates, so it would take fewer than a quarter of these people to cast their candidate vote tactically for Shane Jones to win the seat.
As winning an electorate seat under MMP rules would validate a less than 5 per cent party vote for New Zealand First, those former Labour and Green candidate voters could easily be Simon Bridges' nemesis and guarantee New Zealand First MPs return to Parliament.
Tactical voting would be an especially attractive option for Labour voters as the already selected Labour candidate for the seat is MP Willow-Jean Prime, elected from the Labour Party list in 2017, already gaining promotion as Parliamentary Private Secretary for Local Government.
Willow-Jean Prime's performance guarantees her a safe slot on the Labour Party's list so her 8599 supporters from 2017 could vote for Shane Jones with a clear conscience.
I'd take a bet that Jones will be taking advantage of an MP's ancient right to enter jails and will be a regular visitor to Ngawha prison with a pocket full of enrolment forms.
There are a couple of hundred newly enfranchised prisoners in residence.
Not too many will be voting National.
Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is CEO of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.
