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Home / Hawkes Bay Today / Opinion

Mike Williams: Nats may come to Ardern party

By Mike Williams
Hawkes Bay Today·
4 Aug, 2017 11:00 PM5 mins to read

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Mike Williams

Mike Williams

Opinion

A flying visit to Hawke's Bay on Thursday was a sane interval in a mad week when my old job came back to haunt me and I became a media commentator on the Labour Party's dramatic week.

The political drama began last with polls showing the crucial party vote for Labour crashing to 24 per cent and a leaked internal UMR poll at an even worse level of 23 per cent.

As Labour's candidate vote holds up better than its party vote, a result at that level could mean no list seats and the loss of such party heavyweights as David Parker, Trevor Mallard and even leader Andrew Little himself.

It appeared that Labour was bleeding support to the Greens following Metiria Turei's sensational admission to benefit fraud and to New Zealand First as Winston's road show wended its way around regional New Zealand. But whatever the cause of the decline in support, a radical response was called for.

In those circumstances, political parties always look to their leaders.

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In my view, Andrew Little as leader did a good job in many ways.

The party is more united than it has been since Helen Clark's time; the policy on offer for this election is well developed, attractive and credible.

Labour has attracted a slate of excellent candidates, and is much better organised and funded than it was three years ago.

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Despite all of these advantages, the party was spinning its wheels.

Early on Monday morning in advance of a scheduled call from Radio New Zealand, I spoke with Andrew while he was in the process of making the decision he was to announce later in the day.

His primary consideration was simply to give the Labour Party its best possible chance in the general election less than two months away.

At that point, Andrew didn't tell me what his decision would be, but I could see where his thinking was taking him and just hours later he announced his resignation to the Labour caucus nominating his deputy, Jacinda Ardern.

Jacinda and her deputy, Kelvin Davis, were selected as Labour Party candidates on my watch as president and I am not surprised at their advancement.

Despite the Labour Party's showing in the polls, this pair has the talent and determination to build on the assets Andrew leaves behind, to capture the imagination of large chunks of the electorate and to elect a Labour-led government after the 23rd.

Jacinda is probably the only list candidate I ever supported without actually meeting.

At the 2008 Moderating Committee meeting that constructed the Labour Party list, Jacinda had topped the Wellington regional list and my closest associates in that region made certain I toed their line and spoke up for her, not that I think it was necessary.

So far Jacinda has had rave reviews and my experience is that the more you see of her, the more you'll like her.

There's a human warmth about her to go with the intelligence and commitment and her small-town upbringing gives her valuable insights into a segment of society often a bit alien to the Labour Party.

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I won't be surprised if you see a revival of the phenomenon where women in safe National-held seats quietly give their party vote to Labour to give Jacinda a leg up, just as they did for Helen until John Key came along.

Kelvin Davis as deputy leader also has the potential and ability to reach and galvanise sections of the voting public not easily accessible to the Labour Party in recent years.

An influential Northland Maori who is fluent Te Reo Maori, Kelvin's career before entering Parliament was in education.

His success was such that he was headhunted by the Ministry of Education for a role in the Education Advisory Service before becoming principal of Kaitaia Intermediate School.

He was persuaded to nominate for the Labour list and Te Tai Tokerau in 2008 and elected from the list, but his determination to hold the Te Tai Tokerau electorate finally paid off with a win against Hone Harawira in 2014.

If the spotlight goes on to Kelvin, he too could be a game changer in a different way.

There is no doubt about his appeal to Maoridom but that appeal could go much wider.

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The Labour Party has long looked to reconnect with a voters characterised as "Henderson (or Mahora) Panel Beaters".

These trades people and skilled manual workers are a large bloc of voters and are up for grabs.

Kelvin understands these blokes and many could return to Labour if he shines.

I once phoned him but had trouble getting through. He was out with his son on a hunt somewhere in the Northland bush.

Add that to Kelvin leading a march against sexual violence and it's game on. Enjoy the next few weeks!

* Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is CEO of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.

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