Mike Williams: MMP adds excitement on hustings

Mike Williams

I DROVE to Hawke's Bay for a winter break earlier this week and saw the early signs of the looming election campaign with billboards appearing in South Auckland, Hamilton, Putaruru, Napier and Hastings.
On an early hoarding count Labour appears to be ahead of National despite the party's depressing polling and speculation about a last-minute change of leader.
This at least means Labour's local activists have been busy, and it was also interesting to note that the Labour Party has learned the lesson of the 2011 general election and is now seeking support in the all-important Party Vote. Last election all I saw from Labour were promotions aimed at electing candidates.
The drive down allowed for plenty of time to reflect on what has become an unpredictable political landscape in New Zealand.
For most of the 50 years following World War II, the two big parties Labour and National dominated elections, typically sharing nearly 90 per cent of the vote. The First Past the Post system exaggerated percentage differences, creating "landslides" now and then, but in reality not much changed for half a century.
With the advent of MMP smaller parties have had a chance to get a foothold as this proportional system awards list seats to parties that get over the 5 per cent threshold or win an electorate seat.
The arrival of MMP seems to have coincided with and probably helped drive a fragmentation of politics in New Zealand, with no single party winning an overall majority in any of the six elections held under new system - first adopted for the 1996 general election - and a plethora of small parties popping up.
Our politics may have become unpredictable but you'd have to admit it's a lot more fun. Over the coming weeks there will be some fascinating developments and the final outcome may not be clear for days or even weeks after the September 20 election day.
First, watch to see if National puts up a candidate in Epsom. It is likely to be to National's advantage for the Act party candidate, David Seymour, to win this seat but Labour and Green voters could just conceivably ruin this plot by voting for Paul Goldsmith, the National candidate. If National's polling tells the party this is a possibility, Mr Goldsmith may emerge as a list-only candidate.
The second point of interest will be in the seat of East Coast Bays. Colin Craig, leader of the Conservative Party, is standing in that normally safe National seat. Craig's party scored 2.65 per cent of the Party vote in 2011 but this right-leaning vote was wasted as there was no electorate seat win to validate a sub-5 per cent party vote score.
If John Key is worried about a tight result like 2011, a good insurance policy would be to ask sitting National MP Murray McCully to stand aside and signal to East Coast Bays National supporters that Craig should get their vote. There is reportedly strong opposition in the National Party to giving another seat away, but if poll numbers tighten as they usually do, I'd expect John Key to ask McCully to complete his political career as a list member.
A third wildcard worth watching is Kim Dotcom and his oft repeated threat to wreck National's election campaign. This thoroughly odd figure has long maintained that he has some sort of smoking gun which would severely damage the Prime Minister.
No one I know takes this threat too seriously but Dotcom has booked the Auckland Town Hall to make his revelation shortly before Election Day. This may turn out to be a fizzer, but the same man set out to ruin the career of John Banks and did just that.
One of the first billboards to appear in my home electorate of Te Atatu, erected over a week ago, promoted an Internet Mana roadshow with pictures of Mana leader Hone Harawira, Internet Party leader Laila Harre and the seemingly ubiquitous Kim Dotcom. This promises to be great fun.
Dotcom funded the new party to the tune of $3 million and support for the combined party is starting to show at low levels in recent polls.
As Harawira is likely to win his seat of Te Tai Tokerau, Internet Mana will not need to reach the 5 per cent threshold to elect list MPs.
Watch for some highly original uses of social media by the Internet Mana Party. It is just conceivable that this party could capture the imagination of the huge number of mainly young people who didn't cast a vote in 2011 and motivate them to vote.
Whatever you think of New Zealand politics in the 21st century, you couldn't call it boring.
#Mike Williams is a former Labour Party president who grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is a director of Auckland Transport and CEO of the NZ Howard League.