The Massey University sociologist and distinguished professor has conducted extensive research on the future of New Zealand's regions. He is leading a forum and panel discussion on Monday to explore the implications, challenges and opportunities these changes present.
Like many of New Zealand's regions, the changing face of the population will pose some problems.
As baby boomers enter retirement age, the numbers will effectively double over the next decade and the 65 and over population will make up more than 20 per cent of the population.
Alongside the greying population there will be a smaller number of younger people. This is further emphasised by the departure of teens as they seek higher education or employment.
This new population profile has some important implications, Mr Spoonley says.
Take the supply of workers. The entry/exit ratio of those aged 15-24 compared to every 10 aged 55-64 for Hawke's Bay has gone from 16:10 in 1996 to 10.5:10 in 2011.
This will be a challenge for employers, Mr Spoonley says.
There are other demographic factors to consider. Migration, either within New Zealand or international, is critical. Immigrants can supplement population stagnation and aging as well as bring vital skills to the region.
Hawke's Bay struggled to recruit or retain international immigrants during the global financial crisis - the net region lost 3000 more immigrants than it gained in the 2008-2013 period. However, in the past 12 months it has experienced a modest net gain of 287 immigrants.
"The key point is that Hawke's Bay is facing a very different future because of the demographic changes that are under way."
So what are the options?
"The first is to understand how important these changes are - for service provision, for employment and as underpinning economic growth.
"But why not address the issues with innovative options? Immigration policy settings address national needs but why shouldn't Hawke's Bay develop a more pro-active, even aggressive, approach to attracting immigrants?"
A focus on future skill needs of the region and its employers would be helpful.
And why not make Hawke's Bay a region that is known for providing an attractive environment for older people, including employment?
"What I would argue for is a better understanding of the demographic transformation that is occurring," Mr Spoonley says.
The region must learn from others, Massey University associate Professor Richard Shaw says. On Monday he will present his research on how the region might respond to the challenges ahead resulting from demographic changes.
"Regarding the nature and extent of the demographic challenges facing the Hawke's Bay, it's worth looking around to see what we can learn from others," he says.
"One place we can go is the OECD which, following the global financial crisis, has done extensive research trying to understand what works and what doesn't - in attempts to beef up regional economies.
"Clearly, there are limits to the extent to which we can apply lessons from elsewhere - the specifics of Hawke's Bay are not like those of Europe. Nonetheless, here are some policy lessons that merit thinking about as people in the Hawke's Bay design responses to their own particular issues."
He says growth in what are known as "primate" cities (for example, Auckland) eventually reaches a point where they become less competitive because of negative "externalities". Land scarcity, high property prices, congestion and infrastructure deterioration will eventually drive people away.
Also, governments typically understate regions' contributions.
"When you put those two things together, the case for investment in second and third-tier cities and their regions becomes compelling.
"The evidence from abroad is that the case for central government intervention is strongest when the gap with the major city is large and growing; the business infrastructure of second-tier cities and their regions is weak because of national underinvestment; and there is clear evidence that major city growth is producing negative externalities."
Each of those seems to be occurring in New Zealand. Successful efforts overseas to address these situations reveal that human capital is central.
Specifically, reducing the proportion of people with low skills seems to matter more than increasing the number with very high skills.
Population density is not itself strongly associated with higher growth. Putting large numbers of people in close proximity will not solve the problem. And finally, the redesign of political institutions and governance arrangements can have a major bearing on success, Mr Shaw says.
"Many cities and regions are still trying to use 19th-century local boundaries and 20th-century forms of government to shape and develop a 21st-century global economy."
Mr Spoonley will share findings from his recent research on demographic changes for New Zealand regions during Monday's 4-6pm forum at Vidal Estate.
Massey University Vice-Chancellor Steve Maharey will introduce the event.
A panel discussion on the research findings will include Hastings Mayor Lawrence Yule, Hawke's Bay Today editor Andrew Austin, MPs Craig Foss, Stuart Nash and Meka Whaitiri, and Max Cooper, school leader at Havelock North High School.
