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Home / Hawkes Bay Today

Hawke's Bay economy at a tipping point?

Hawkes Bay Today
28 Dec, 2017 08:00 PM4 mins to read

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SLOWING DOWN? A new report suggests a recent fall in economic confidence in Hawke's Bay. Photo/File

SLOWING DOWN? A new report suggests a recent fall in economic confidence in Hawke's Bay. Photo/File

The Hawke's Bay economy could be at a "tipping point", brought on by fears over the possible introduction of new government legislation, Westpac's Regional Economic Roundup report says.

The Westpac report said households in the Hawke's Bay/Gisborne region were now less confident than previously about the economic outlook for their region as well as their own employment prospects.

The report said that was partly down to a rise in the rate of unemployment levels, which are now at (a combined) 8.8 per cent - more than double the national rate of 4.6 per cent.

However, the Hawke's Bay business community does not agree.

"I think it's been a great year and people have enjoyed the benefits of the environment, it just seems to be really positive", Hawke's Bay Chamber of Commerce chief executive Wayne Walford said.

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"There's a really good energy amongst the commercial sector. There is a lot more of that inquiry from out of town and we just need to be open to that.

"As long as we stay open for business and have a positive outlook to people moving into the region - and opportunities that could avail themselves to here, then I think we have got another great year ahead of us."

Mr Walford said the rise in Auckland house prices had given extra impetus to the number of people from larger centres cashing up and looking to buy property and businesses here.

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"As long as we keep the narrative for Hawke's Bay positive, and Hawke's Bay Tourism does a great job of that. If we as individuals can do the same, then I think we will see more of that flow from the main centres to more regional centres."

The Westpac report also reflected growing concerns about labour market conditions and earnings potential, especially for workers in the horticulture, viticulture and forestry industries, which are key employers in the region.

It noted that while horticulture and viticulture had produced consistent gains, it added that house prices had slowed in the year's last quarter, as prospective buyers responded to the cumulative effect of large price increases and any pre-election jitters.

"The evidence suggests that the region has reached a tipping point and that activity is set to ease over the near term," the report said.

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The report said there were some positive indicators - retail sales were sharply up, and new vehicle sales were on the rise, as were residential building consents.

Karamu Holden new car sales manager Jonathan Stone said the region's sales yards had been doing good business, with fierce competition resulting in good deals for both families buying new seven-seater vehicles and particularly, light commercial operators buying new utes.

"There definitely has been growth. It's an extremely competitive marketplace now, but despite that we've still had some growth over what we did last year."

And 2018 would "definitely be positive".

Hawke's Bay Federated Farmers president Will Foley also challenged the report's suggestion that fears over water pricing issues and the likelihood of a capital gains tax "likely to undermine regional confidence levels" and could even prompt some farmers to sell up.

Mr Foley said the situation was not as bleak as that.

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"Farmers are reasonably buoyant about prospects for 2018.

"The weather status in general is better in Hawke's Bay than many other parts of the country. Some parts of Hawke's Bay have been fortunate with thunderstorms while others not so much, but not too dissimilar to a normal Hawke's Bay summer so far.

"Livestock are generally in good condition heading into the new year with more supplement feed made in Hawke's Bay than most other parts of country."

Dairy farmers were also happy with a better than expected forecast payout for the year. Though they would want to see stability and more positive news from the next few Global Dairy Trade auctions to feel confident the higher farmgate prices were here to stay.

"Beef and sheep meat returns remain buoyant, and so far the outlook is for them to remain that way and so farmers will be hoping for weather conditions to be favourable through 2018 to capitalise."

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