A missile streaks over the Tel Aviv skyline. New Zealand does have direct economic exposure to the conflict, but we shouldn't panic too much too soon, writes Nick Stewart. Photo / Getty Images
A missile streaks over the Tel Aviv skyline. New Zealand does have direct economic exposure to the conflict, but we shouldn't panic too much too soon, writes Nick Stewart. Photo / Getty Images
The media have had a busy week connecting the United States and Israeli strikes on Iran to your wallet.
Some claims are legitimate; some are noise dressed up as financial guidance. Knowing which is which becomes key.
The Strait of Hormuz: Not a new risk
The Strait of Hormuzis a 33-kilometre-wide chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. About 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through it every day. Iran mined it during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, prompting direct US military intervention. It threatened closure in 2011, again in 2019, and Iran’s parliament passed a motion recommending closure as recently as June 2025.
This waterway has been a geopolitical instrument for more than 40 years. That history doesn’t make the current situation trivial, but it does provide context that breathless headlines rarely include.
New Zealand does have direct economic exposure. According to the Meat Industry Association, nearly all of our red meat exports to the Gulf Co-operation Council, worth $298 million in 2025, including $166m in chilled produce, travel through Hormuz.
Supply chain firm Kotahi has confirmed all the big shipping lines have suspended services through the strait, with 4000 containers of New Zealand export cargo currently in transit.
Fuel prices are also a concern. New Zealand no longer imports crude oil from the Middle East, but petrol is priced in a global market. Brent crude spiked more than 8% when trading opened after weekend strikes.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has noted that rising fuel costs pervade the entire economy and may force the Reserve Bank to respond with interest rate adjustments.
Additionally, about one-third of the world’s fertiliser trade goes through Hormuz. That’s directly relevant to a primary-export economy like ours.
So yes, there are real things worth monitoring. Beyond fearmongering, there’s geography and economics that have been decades in the making.
Now for the noise
At 7.56am on Monday, March 2, before Wall Street had opened, 1News published a story headed, “Iran attack sparks warning for KiwiSaver, fuel, inflation”. It told readers to brace for volatility and expect red ink in their retirement savings.
By the time Kiwi investors had absorbed that, and perhaps reached for their phones to switch funds, Wall Street had opened, dipped 1.2%, and was already recovering. The S&P 500 closed that day up just 0.04%.
The warning had outrun the facts by an entire trading day.
Alarming news coverage is often produced ahead of events. By the time reality arrives, most people have already absorbed the panic as truth.
Financial planning is a continuous process, not a one-time event, writes Nick Stewart.
The latest Retirement Commission data puts the average KiwiSaver balance at $37,079 and the average member age at 44.
That means the typical investor has roughly 20 to 25 years of accumulation ahead. Long-term growth funds have historically returned 7%–9% annually.
The right time to review your settings is when your circumstances change – income, timeline, risk tolerance, financial plan – not when the news cycle does.
When others are running from the fire
Warren Buffett has made a career of running towards financial fires, not away from them.
Writing in the depths of the Global Financial Crisis, he famously said: “Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.”
When assets go on sale, most investors want nothing to do with them. When they’re expensive, everyone piles in. Buffett’s instruction is the opposite.
This is where structured rebalancing earns its keep. A well-engineered portfolio doesn’t just sit passively through volatility.
When equities fall and defensive assets hold their ground, a disciplined rebalancing framework does what Buffett describes: trim what has held up, add to what has fallen.
Not because of a headline, but because the plan said so before any of this happened.
The media’s job is to make you read the next paragraph. Your financial plan’s job is to compound quietly over decades.
When the coverage that explained oil prices pivots to urging you to make a hasty investment decision, that is where you put the phone down, flick on the kettle, and make yourself a brew instead.
