Engineers have poured cold water on Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee's draft energy strategy involving reduction of fossil-fuel power and more emphasis on wind generation.
Prime Minister John Key's government has called for 90 percent of New Zealand's electricity to be generated renewably by 2025, a significant lift from the current level of 73 percent generated from hydro, geothermal and wind resources.
The nation last generated more than 90 percent of its electricity from renewable sources in 1981.
The Institute of Professional Engineers (IPENZ) policy director, Tim Davin, today questioned whether the Government's strategy was capable of achieving the nation's objectives for energy efficiency, renewables, emissions and security of supply.
Even if all electricity generators now under construction and consent were built, the level of renewable sources in the electricity consumed in 2025 was likely to be 68 percent, he said.
Mr Davin said one scenario involving the partial closure of Huntly Power Station and two major gas plants with more emphasis on South Island wind generation was ``not going to happen''.
Public submissions are due to close tomorrow on the energy strategy, which sets energy within the Government's plan to grow the economy with both with renewable and fossil fuel generation.
The scale of the proposed shift to wind and to move away from reliance on fossil fuels was unlikely.
Speaking to science journalists Mr Davin said research into marine energy should be based on wave-power, rather than tidal generators, though he noted the engineering community was split on this detail.
New Zealand was vulnerable to fluctuations in wind and rain, he said. At present, the heavy reliance on electricity generated in the South Island meant there was a specific problem with transmission across Cook Strait, until a new link was completed in 2014.
Until then, the nation faced serious problems if there was another ``dry year'' in the southern hydro lakes.
After 2014, there would still be a need for ``peaking'' electricity plants to be built to fill in gaps, because it was likely that during a dry winter -- when hydro output could be compromised -- there would also be less wind.
Mr Davin was also critical of aspects of the Government's associated draft policy on energy conservation, including the transition to energy-efficient transport.
The targets for transport were in an energy strategy rather than a transport strategy, and proposals for energy conservation were relatively sparse, he said.
The Government had paid too little attention to the potential for hot-water heat pumps which had a lot of advantages over solar hot water systems, and it was not giving sufficient weight to clean and efficient wood-fired heating.
Energy strategy not likely to meet target: engineers
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