National is walking a tightrope after Bill English presented a Budget based on having his fingers crossed that the Treasury has got its predictions right.
Financial forecasting is a murky art at the best of times so for National to be relying on the assumption of a growing economy, that thedays of contraction are behind us, is a very brave and risky place to be.
Mr English is telling voters they will have to suck up the pain in order to get the nation's books back in the black by 2014-15. That leaves precious little room for stumbling and, as we have seen with a longer-than-expected period of downturn in New Zealand since 2008 and the unexpected economic blow of a catastrophic earthquake in Christchurch, it is easy to stumble.
In the meantime, we in Hawke's Bay - where there is precious little sign of a return to prosperity - must take our medicine, trusting that if we do so we will help balance the books.
That medicine is going to be hard to swallow for some. Government KiwiSaver contributions have been halved. There will be more asset sales. Working for Families takes a trim. And the big one - expenditure on the public sector will be slashed by $326 million a year for the next three years.
It is hard to see anything other than mass job losses out of the public sector and, while we do not seek to condone bloated government departments, if the cuts are too deep, the human sacrifice could add to the country's misery. This Budget, short on direction and ideas, has the potential to further contract the economy if the trade winds do not blow the right way.
For National then, there is a lot riding on the assumption that we will reach Treasury's 4 per cent growth forecast which would have us in the black and generating new employment.
When it comes to KiwiSaver, National has broken faith with voters. Even those of a mind to forgive the cut in Government contributions would agree the constant tinkering with our retirement saving scheme is a disgrace.
