Dry paddocks drew dust in Poukawa in autumn of 2021. A regional council report suggests the region will face an annual water shortfall of 32 million cubic metres by 2040. Photo / Paul Taylor
Dry paddocks drew dust in Poukawa in autumn of 2021. A regional council report suggests the region will face an annual water shortfall of 32 million cubic metres by 2040. Photo / Paul Taylor
A draft Hawke's Bay Regional Council report suggests the region will now face an annual water shortfall of 32 million cubic metres by 2040.
The Hawke's Bay Regional Water Assessment, which was commissioned by the council and has yet to be released publicly, shows that the figure could continue togrow even further, reaching a 46 million cubic metre shortfall by 2060.
The figures come amid a concerted push to keep the dream alive for large-scale water storage in Central Hawke's Bay.
Water Holdings Hawke's Bay's proposed Makaroro Storage Scheme, the reworked modern version of the failed Ruataniwha Dam, would store 100 million cubic metres of water if it is ever built.
Regional water security programme director Tom Skerman said the numbers in the assessment were provisional and would change slightly as new information came through. A date for the release of the final report has yet to be finalised.
Skerman said the current figures would stand even if water savings and efficiencies were implemented.
These efficiencies including ongoing regional council regulatory processes driving down allocation, such as the Tukituki plan change for Central Hawke's Bay and proposed TANK plan change for Heretaunga.
"The shortfall represents future demand that is unable to be met, because the starting point is that, in the main catchments... there is no more water to allocate."
Skerman said the council was reluctant to release the document prior to completion as the community would likely rely on the data provided for their own future planning, and accuracy was important.
He said there were no surprises from the current findings.
"Climate change will mean we have less water in future for our environment, our communities and our economy, we will need to conserve and manage water more efficiently and we need to investigate and understand what water storage options are available and acceptable to the community that increase the supply of water."
He said the council plans to release this document and an easy-to-read summary alongside the Kotahi Plan engagement process at the earliest possible opportunity.
Central Hawke's Bay District Council Mayor Alex Walker said the predicted shortfall showed water security was not just a Central Hawke's Bay issue. Photo / NZME
Central Hawke's Bay District Council mayor Alex Walker, who revealed the existence of the draft report to Hawke's Bay Today, said the data showed water security was not just a Central Hawke's Bay issue.
"With our current water use habits, changing climate, population growth projections, business practices and infrastructure, we are going to have a massive shortfall in water very, very quickly," Walker said.
"This information has not yet been widely circulated. And it is imperative to the knowledge basis on which we all need to be making decisions."
She said catchment-scale water storage needed to remain on the table alongside the numerous other initiatives, tools, trials and strategies the region may need to address water security.
Hugh Ritchie, a Water Holdings Hawke's Bay director, said he hadn't seen the report yet but he knew that the Tukituki River alone needed 20 million cubic metres to reach the minimum environmental flow and he wasn't surprised by the preliminary findings.
"If you want to get environmental flows in the rivers, then the figure could be greater."
Trevor Le Lievre, spokesperson for Wise Water Use, said the group was advocating for a review of large consents and redistribution to address over-allocation and uneven allocation from an "unfair and outdated "first-in-first-served" regime".
"If a water issue still remains, only then should engineering solutions be investigated," Le Lievre said.
Tom Kay, freshwater advocate for Forest and Bird, also said Hawke's Bay's issues and inequities in water allocation needed to be addressed before the supply issue.
"We need to be thinking about nature-based solutions that can make us more resilient - wetland restoration, reforestation, and making room for rivers," Kay said.
The region currently uses 162 million cubic metres of water annually.
Provisional figures from Hawke's Bay Regional Council show that agriculture, including irrigation, uses 54.9 per cent of this figure, while the municipal water supply takes up 18.5 per cent.
These are followed by manufacturing and processing at 13.2 per cent and electricity at 10.6 per cent.
Non-reticulated households and service industries are 1.8 and 0.9 per cent respectively.
