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New Zealand's level 4 lockdown has been extended nationwide until 11.59pm on Tuesday after confirmation the Covid-19 outbreak has spread to Wellington.
The Friday morning headline read something like "Experts predict lockdown will be extended".
You didn't need to be an expert to know that the non-Auckland lockdown was going to be extended on Friday afternoon.
The question was simply - how long is this particular piece of lockdown string?
On Thursday,Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was asked directly "will Friday's lockdown be extended?".
Her answer was a slice of political fudge along the lines of "we've been clear about the duration of Auckland's lockdown".
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It seems inevitable that we will be in some form of lockdown all of next week, and possible longer. Photo / Paul Taylor
Information is key, when it comes to assessing lockdown levels and duration, and that information is still being gathered. And changing very day.
We learned very early on, that precautionary dates and locations of interest went back to August 3. Precautionary or not, it had been in the community longer than we had thought.
Also, this is Delta - new territory with a more contagious variant.
The key clue that nothing was changing outside of Auckland?
Government modelling pointed to more than 100 cases.
Until we reach 100 cases, we are unlikely to be out of level 4.
It would be extraordinary, to see New Zealand in level 3, before modelling numbers are reached.
We knew all of the above, very early in this lockdown - there is no way the non-Auckland lockdown level was changing on Friday.
Ardern could have acknowledged this on Thursday, without sending the country into turmoil.
It would have allowed a little more certainty for business owners and workers around the country, and reduced one layer of anxiety for many people.
In terms of the Friday decision, extending the non-Auckland lockdown until Auckland's initial expiry date, is a cautious approach and lines the entire country up in terms of lockdown levels and (short-term) duration.
On Friday, Ardern was asked the same question again - "isn't it inevitable that we are in some form of lockdown after next Tuesday?"
Her response was "I never say anything is inevitable."
Asked a secondary question about allaying anxiety by offering some clarity around a post-Monday Cabinet meeting on lockdown, she said that whatever happened, the Government would use the available data and information to not prolong lockdown unnecessarily.
A hefty proportion of the population are clinging to the hope that a stiff southwesterly will blow Delta out to sea. But it would be naive to think this latest outbreak is going away in a few weeks.
Lockdown levels reduce 4-3-2-1 and that won't change in the face of a new variant that is beginning to pop its head up in all sorts of places.
It is absolutely inevitable that New Zealand will be in some form of lockdown for all of next week.
As for the assessment of information, New Zealand voters are getting adept at predicting lockdown levels, and short-term duration, based on what they are reading in the media.
Ardern shouldn't underestimate this - failing to state the obvious can become patronising.
We will be in lockdown all of next week - that is certain. We just don't know for how long and at what level, until Delta spreads and we contain it.
Ardern can surely admit so without crashing Labour's value on the stockmarket of public opinion.
