There was a lot to like about Katie Nimon's 2020 election performance against Stuart Nash.
Nash certainly ended the campaign with respect for his opponent and was gracious with his praise of the diminutive Nimon, who grew in political stature in a very short time.
And now, Nimon's back fora 2023 face-off with Nash.
Katie Nimon's announcement as National's Napier candidate raises several points, not least of all being, what happens if she loses? Photo / NZME
Nimon's name had been talked about in political and media circles as an obvious candidate for 2023, with some speculating she would switch electorates and take on Tukituki MP Anna Lorck.
National would have considered that, given Lorck's propensity for warm to hot water, and a small 2020 majority, Nimon would likely succeed with a simple strategy of towing the party line and avoiding drama and theatrics.
Nimon comes across as professional and has smart people reading skills. National like her.
A potential negative of switching to Tukituki could have been the voter rejection which can arise from candidates jumping electorates.
Voters don't always take kindly to the central government equivalent of Tim Shadbolt's famous ''I don't care where, as long as I'm mayor'' slogan.
The reality is that Nimon knows Napier, did well last time, and the red tide is receding.
But her announcement as National's candidate raises several points, not least of all being - what happens if she loses in what is still considered a safe Labour seat?
It would seem grossly unfair to put Nimon in the position that Lorck was in at the last election.
Namely, if you want to be an MP, you're going to have to win the seat.
Nimon has long-term National potential, with business nous, local government experience, and she is seemingly low-risk in terms of her conduct and behaviour.
All of which suggests a party ranking that will see her become at the very least, a List MP in 2023.
The respect that Nash showed for Nimon in 2020 was genuine, and he will have some concern over the contest, given Labour's receding tide.
One year is an eternity in politics. Anything could happen, and something drastic would need to, to see Nimon tip Nash for votes next year.
But expect Nimon to be an MP.
Lorck, meanwhile, has struggled in her first term as an MP, with controversy and Opposition ridicule.
Made fun of by National - and one experienced male MP in particular, for her odd Berocca speech in February 2021 - Lorck has too often made headlines for reasons that will have furrowed her leader's brow.
In 2022, Lorck has been subject to bullying allegations from former staff, and has worked with a leadership coach to improve her management style.
Lorck does not just have a unique management style - she has a unique style. Full stop.
She is infamous in Hawke's Bay, and talked about.
One year is indeed a very long time in politics, and Lorck will be determined to be talked about for all the right reasons in the next 12 months.
Anything less and she is guaranteed a repeat of her 2020 scenario (if she doesn't already face it) - that is, if you want to be an MP, win the seat.
Lorck will highlight housing as a big 'win' in her tenure, and will hope voters have forgotten Labour's epic fail a term or two ago in predicting it would be build X number of houses, then barely getting past A, B and C, let alone anywhere near X.
She will also hope that embracing Three Waters - something everyone hates - by touting Hastings as its future national HQ won't have left too many swinging, or National voters who ticked her name in 2020 scratching their heads and muttering, ''What the...?''
Lorck is regarded as a hard worker, and with a campaign free of drama and loaded with substance, she might counter the swing back to National.
The big challenge, though, is she is defending a small majority.
Lorck’s winning margin was 1590 votes, after an initial margin of 772 on election night. But in the context of 2020′s historic red tide, it’s not much.
If National can stop regurgitating populist, hackneyed concepts like boot-camps for youth, choose a solid candidate, and its leadership doesn’t implode (again), then Tukituki has a strong chance of turning blue again.
At the next election, Tukituki MP Anna Lorck will highlight housing as a big 'win' in her tenure, and will hope voters have forgotten Labour's epic fail a term or two ago. Photo / Supplied
