Hawke's Bay DHB chief executive Keriana Brooking said modelling showed Omicron cases in the region could peak in March. Photo / Warren Buckland
Hawke's Bay DHB chief executive Keriana Brooking said modelling showed Omicron cases in the region could peak in March. Photo / Warren Buckland
There are eight new Covid cases in Hawke's Bay, all linked to the known Hastings Delta cluster, bringing the region's total to 21.
The news came as Hawke's Bay District Health Board chief executive Keriana Brooking laid bare the modelling that suggests there will be thousands of cases in theregion in as little as six weeks.
Medical Officer of Health Nick Jones said the people had all been safely isolating and there would be no new, associated locations of interest to add.
"People, however, need to be vigilant with Omicron beginning to circulate around the country and get tested if they have any cold or flu-like symptoms no matter how minor.
"The quicker we identify people and isolate them along with their close contacts the more chance we have of stopping any further spread of the virus," Jones said.
Jones said vaccination was the best protection against Covid and people eligible for their booster vaccination should get it, for an added layer of protection.
"Boosters lower your chances of getting very sick and being hospitalised from Covid, including the Omicron variant, and help to slow the spread of the virus."
As of Thursday, Hawke's Bay DHB required all visitors to Hawke's Bay and Wairoa Hospitals along with Central Hawke's Bay Medical Centre's inpatient unit to wear surgical masks.
Today, the Ministry of Health reported 45 Covid cases in the community, which accounted for both Omicron and Delta variants of the virus.
Overseas health research organisation the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) earlier said New Zealand could be facing 50,000 daily Omicron infections by Waitangi weekend, peaking at about 80,000 each day a few weeks later.
The IHME projections also predicted an outbreak in New Zealand could last about three months, with death rates projected to total more than 400 by May 1.
Daily fatalities were predicted to spike at about 10 through mid-March.
In a newsletter sent to Hawke's Bay DHB staff this week by chief executive Keriana Brooking, she said data supplied by the Ministry and modelling estimated that the region had a couple of weeks before Omicron was widely circulating in the community.
Hawke's Bay could expect more than 18,000 Covid Omicron cases
Hawke's Bay DHB, like all DHBs, has been provided modelling data from Technical Advisory Services (TAS) on what the region could expect to see from an Omicron outbreak, she said.
Most DHBs were doing further modelling work and Hawke's Bay DHB was working in partnership with Waikato University to further develop this and expected to be in a position to update or confirm the data by the end of this week, she said.
"The modelling we have received from TAS shows we can expect 18,668 Covid cases for Hawke's Bay over the next 12 months, with peak cases of 5993 in March (1922 from vaccinated population and 4071 unvaccinated population)," Brooking said.
"The modelling suggested Māori would be affected by Omicron substantially more than Pacific or other ethnicities."
It also forecasts peak hospitalisations of 177 in March, with three additional ICU cases, rising to five ICU cases in April.
"This is a worrying time for us all working in health but we are pleased that with the support of our community partners we have achieved a solid and still increasing uptake of Covid-19 vaccinations," Brooking said.
"We continue to work hard so we can get as many eligible people to have their booster to further protect them from Covid-19 before the expected wave of Omicron infection hits."
Hawke's Bay has eight new Covid cases, all linked to the known Hastings Delta cluster, bringing the region's total to 21. Photo / NZME
A high vaccination uptake meant the region would see less people needing hospital care and even fewer requiring ICU care, she said.
"The emphasis will be on caring for people in the community, ensuring people know how to access care, and especially ensuring our vulnerable- pregnant women, people over 60, Māori and Pasifika, people who are immune compromised and those with mental health conditions, to name a few, have clear care plans in place should they be needed.
"We are closely working with a broad group of social and clinical organisations including our primary care and iwi providers on this."
Drive-in testing centres and booked appointments are available and include:
Thursday, January 27: • Totara Health, Flaxmere drive through 10am-1pm • CHB Health Centre drive through 9am-4pm • Splash Planet, Hastings 10am-1pm
Friday, January 28:
• Splash planet Hastings drive through 10am-pm • Whitmore Park Napier drive through 10am-1pm • CHB Health Centre drive through 9am-4pm
To book a test:
• Hastings Health Centre, call 06 281 2644 8.30am-5pm, Monday-Saturday to book an appointment. • The Doctors Napier, call 0800 837 819 9am-5pm daily to book an appointment. • Takapau Health Centre, call 06 855 8376 11.30am-2pm Monday-Wednesday and Friday to book an appointment. • Queen Street Practice Wairoa, for booked appointments call 06 838 8333 daily.
