Bruce Bisset: Welcome step on nuclear-free path

Bruce Bisset is a freelance writer and poet. Photo: Warren Buckland

Having grown up with the spectre of atomic Armageddon casting a mushroom pall over the world, it is heartening Iran has finally agreed terms that should see any ambition to become a nuclear weapons power severely curtailed if not altogether ended.

And before Iranian sympathisers protest their programme has been aimed solely at electrical generation, I'm sure that is largely so; but I'm equally sure they would have made and stashed a few warheads if they could.

Now, with IAEA inspectors and verifiers given unlimited access in this landmark deal, it should be nigh-on impossible for Iran to construct nuclear bombs.

At least, not using uranium they have enriched themselves; unfortunately dozens of kilos of the stuff has gone missing - primarily from Russia - in the past 30 years. Who knows where any of that may be.

But this is a welcome step along the path of prevention of nuclear proliferation; something all sides must be congratulated for concluding successfully.

Would that the Chinese - a party to the Iranian deal - had taken as hard a line with North Korea when they had opportunity. There is every chance that if the paranoid and delusional Kim dynasty should ever start to topple, its last laugh will be a radioactive one.

Pakistan remains a potential flash-point for its ongoing sniping with India over Kashmir and the possibility the Taliban (or a regime not dissimilar) seizing control of its 200-warhead arsenal.

For that matter, China and Russia have lately made veiled threats reminding the world they have megatonnage "on ice", so despite the 10,000-12,000 atomic warheads still in existence being only one-sixth the number there were in the 1980s, we are not yet beyond the blast-zone of annihilation.

However, it's increasingly likely should nuclear conflict erupt, it will be "small-scale": a regional argument, mad dictator's folly or the ultimate terrorist act. And even with this deal, the Middle East is the most likely ground zero.

Israel maintains a strict neither-confirm-nor-deny policy but major intelligence sources put its stockpile at 80 warheads.

Although no tests have been confirmed, Israel may have exploded a bomb in concert with South Africa - the so-called "Vela double-flash" incident in the Indian Ocean in 1979. (South Africa remains the only country to develop atomic warheads, then change its mind and dispose of them.)

Unsurprisingly - given its history of pre-emptive destruction of Syrian and Iraqi nuclear facilities - the most negative comments against the deal came from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said it would release a "jackpot" of funding for Iranian nuclear research.

He was referring to the US$120 billion in oil revenues sitting in foreign bank accounts unable to be collected by Iran because of trade sanctions - sanctions that have strangled its economy, still ranked the world's 18th largest.

It will take years of full compliance before all restrictions are lifted, but many of Iran's 80 million citizens celebrated knowing an end to them is now in sight. That prospect is Iran's reason to honour this agreement - and maybe there'll be a silver lining for New Zealand as trade resumes with the world's largest "untapped" market.

It may not be a perfect deal, but if it derails a new nuclear weapons programme and avoids a war over that programme, then it is a deal worth celebrating.

It's also further proof sanctions work. Perhaps Israel's missile-rattling requires sanctions, too?

-Bruce Bisset is a freelance writer and poet.