Bruce Bisset: Shifting the balance of power

Bruce Bisset.

Let's call Cynthia Bowers' switch from Hastings deputy mayor to regional council wannabe what it is: the local powers-that-be attempting to shore up support for the Ruataniwha dam and irrigation scheme, just in case Napier voters finally wake up and dump one or more of their incumbents and so change the balance of regional politics.

Not that that's looking likely; unless a heavy-hitter like former mayor Barbara Arnott comes out of the woodwork, at close of nominations at midday today there's a good chance the only "dam sceptic" on the ballot in Napier will be the Greens' Paul Bailey.

As much as they need to go, Bailey faces a difficult task trying to unseat either Alan Dick or Dave Pipe or stave off the returning blue-green Neil Kirton - though I do expect him to give the HBRC's hired-gun lawyer, Martin Williams, more than a run for his money.

But Hawke's Bay's elite are taking no chances. With the four Hastings incumbents - all dam sceptics of varying degree - looking set to be returned, Bowers' campaign aims to make sure things don't go haywire by taking one of the sceptics' seats.

That will - again assuming both Debbie Hewitt in CHB and chairman Fenton Wilson in Wairoa are returned - assure either the "pro" camp's one-vote margin (the present 5:4 split) is maintained, or increase it to 6:3.

In short, it's insurance.

Now, that analysis may well be wrong - and I hope it is. Maybe Dan Elderkamp can unseat Hewitt in CHB; maybe Bailey can top the poll on a wave of sudden realisation from Napier voters that the port is being used as a sacrificial debt-cow for the dam.

But the cynic in me doubts it.

In many respects I quite like Cynthia, both for the work she's done in HDC and for her stance on other issues, such as wanting to protect the aquifers from fracking and keeping the region GM-free.

Nevertheless, her switch-hit is primarily about ensuring the RWSS goes ahead " because that's the only issue on which she differs in stance from the existing Hastings regional councillors (Barker, Beaven, Belford and Graham). Don't be fooled otherwise.

Don't be fooled because, as you may recall, her husband Ewan McGregor was deputy chair of HBRC when they moved to adopt the RWSS plan in the first place.

So this looks like making sure family business isn't left unfinished.

But isn't the dam debate over and done with, I hear many of you asking. No, it isn't.

At least two of the four "conditions precedent" that are required to be satisfied before the council gives the scheme its final big tick have not yet been met. Crucially, despite insider rumours the Accident Compensation Corporation will invest, apart from council itself, no other investors have yet been identified to stump up the build cost of the dam.

And the much-anticipated Deloitte's financial analysis backing the so-called breakeven point for (advance) water sales was thrown into considerable doubt almost as soon as it was tabled.

Councillors and consultants have reportedly been scurrying ever since to try to re-devise a set of figures that adequately meets the "water sales at breakeven" precondition.

What this means is that the chances of final sign-off before October's election are looking slim, making who wins what seats crucial to whether the RWSS actually goes ahead.

So, the dam is still very much an election issue " and now you know how that fight shapes up.

- Bruce Bisset is a freelance writer and poet.

- All opinions expressed here are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.