It hasn't stopped a bevy of climate denialists from putting their two cents in, citing cherry-picked data or simply their own poorly-informed opinions to deride the very idea of inundation from the sea – though I note none has challenged the equally-valid risk from flood events.
This last is something anyone in the vicinity of a half-decent-sized waterway must consider, because as part of changing patterns, rain "dumps" are becoming the norm. And while single-day rainfall may or may not top previous records, a new study shows total rainfall over the two-to-four days of such an event is creating extreme river flows that may threaten the existing flood-protection network.
Certainly that was the result in Westland, where a record three-day dump in March caused the Waiho River to wash away the highway bridge and Fox River to scour out a capped landfill, leaving an environmental disaster of strewn rubbish spread over some 75km of otherwise-pristine coast.
It's the reason Hawke's Bay Regional Council plans to spend significant amounts to upgrade local stopbanks. The problem is exacerbated by the fact rain falls on fewer days, with longer more frequent dry periods creating conditions where water then sloughs off more readily to swell the rivers.
These patterns of change are clear and verifiable and cannot be blithely denied. It's not "just weather"; it's permanent.
The flipside of this pattern – long predicted for northern and eastern parts of the country – is a shortage of water overall, such as Northland, Auckland, and Waikato are experiencing right now. In Kerikeri they've only received a third of normal rainfall so far this year; in Auckland storage dams are down from a usual 84 per cent to just 60 per cent full.
Hawke's Bay is also experiencing lower than normal rainfall and river flows over much of the region, and farmers have already signalled their concerns if sufficient rain does not fall going into spring.
Meanwhile councils find themselves conflicted over how to approach the impacts of sea-level rise.
Some, such as Napier City, seem happy to ignore it to the extent of expanding suburbia on land at risk from relatively low-level rise, such as at Te Awa and on the former Te Orutu estuary flats – while at the same time looking to construct seawalls to protect parts of Westshore.
Others like Hastings District are trying to encourage "managed retreat" in the face of recalcitrant property owners along the seashore at Haumoana, and reluctantly spending money on hard engineering even though these "solutions" will be short-lived.
Inevitably, as the sea rises and inundation starts to bite, there will be arguments around liability and apportioning of blame.
For those most at risk, the simple answer would be to follow Hohepa's lead, and move while they can.
* Bruce Bisset is a freelance writer and poet. Views expressed are the writer's opinion and not the newspaper's.
