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Home / Hawkes Bay Today

Bruce Bisset: Environment to take back seat

By BRUCE BISSET - LEFT HOOK
Hawkes Bay Today·
3 Jan, 2012 08:34 PM4 mins to read

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Seems to me there's little pleasure in having predictions come true when what you forecast falls somewhere between bad and worse.

Unfortunately, my "middling year" prognosis for 2011 was very much on the mark: continuous slow decline with nothing significant happening to prevent global economic collapse or climate change or, locally, the return of a head-in-the-sand National Government.

Indeed, given the welter of natural and man-made disasters that also speckled the year, on balance last New Year's column was probably optimistic.

Which makes trying to pick the trends for 2012 a tad more fraught; I don't wish to paint myself as a doom-sayer. But if the unpalatable truth is that things can only get worse, then I'm afraid that's what needs to be said.

However, I'll stick my neck out here and declare the Mayans - or at least those who interpret their mathematical legacy - got it wrong; the world will not end this year.

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In fact, economically, 2012 will likely appear to be a year of regeneration.

It's interesting that coincidentally all three 20th-century "superpowers" will debate leadership this year, though of the three only the US might effectively change: Vladimir Putin is a shoo-in to be "restored" as President in Russia while Hu Jintao's deputy Xi Jinping simply steps up in China.

Nevertheless, that last is significant, because if there's one thing the Chinese like to keep up, it's appearances. And, especially as it's the year of the dragon - signalling abundance and prosperity - I bet Mr Xi will look to make his mark on the world stage with some proactive economic policies.

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A realistic re-weighting of the yuan to rebalance the rest of the world's terms of trade with China. Or - provided the EU bites the bullet and wipes a goodly percentage of their bankrupt nations' debts - a change of attitude that sees China directly aiding a European recovery.

Certainly with his pro-business background, Xi's ascent should be the defining economic event for the year - and may well translate into averting the anticipated great depression.

Environmentally, however, we are going backwards faster now than at any time in the past decade. Due, for the most part, on the political-financial establishment's concentration on economic recovery - which, contrary to all the laudable speeches of the recent past, is primarily not prevaricated on green principles.

This is evident as much locally as anywhere, with National making plain that resource extraction for short-term profit is top of its agenda - the sell-off of remaining state assets is to some extent a smokescreen behind which to allow new mining ventures, on land and under the sea.

In Hawke's Bay that means our local blue boys, Tremain and Foss, will soon be changing their slogan to "We're fracking the Bay". Aided and abetted by a regional council that does not seem to understand the precautionary principle, and has forgotten its main function is to protect and enhance the environment.

What's the bet that by year's end, we will already be seeing evidence of pollution of the aquifer on which all our plants and animals (including humans) rely? If so, it will be far too late to start to care.

That last year's weather-related disasters broke all sorts of cost-damage records world-wide had no discernible impact on the Durban climate-change talks, whose impasse has allowed the deniers to once more gather steam, perhaps hoping to usurp the mantle of "the protester" - the image Time magazine named "man of the year".

Of course Time meant the "Arab Spring" and other pro-democracy uprisings, with only lip-service to the Occupy movement (since that could be interpreted as anti-democratic).

But given the issues that really matter - the ones underpinning the future survival of the race - are being sidelined even by so-called democracies, and given one-third of Kiwis - and where does that imply they sit on this? - did not vote, I suggest the Occupy movement was the first hint of a gathering storm.

Xi, Obama, Putin and all the rest of the current leaders (including Key) may be happily jumping through hoops to keep the money-making wheels on track, but the environment is the real bottom line - and they are ignoring it.

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So, despite appearances, keep in mind that this year will see that imbalance worsen.

That's the right of it.

Due to a technical hitch Bruce Bisset's column was not available to us on Monday.

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