Another 100mm or more of rain could fall in parts of Hawke's Bay this week as the region bounces back from the threat of drought.

The rain is forecast by national weather agency MetService for Thursday, adding strength to last week's calculations by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) that rainfall in Hawke's Bay could be "above normal" over the next three months, in contrast to near record low rainfall in the first half of the year.

Late yesterday, Auckland-based Hawke's Bay-focused "local" meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said showers can be expected in some areas south from Waikaremoana tomorrow, extending to heavy rain in the western ranges on the following two days.

She said more significant rain is likely in the third week of the month.


"The Tasman Sea rain makers are expected to produce above normal July rainfall in the north and east of the North Island," she said. Hawke's Bay seemed to be onto a "repeat cycle" of weather not seen since the heavy rain of last September, when more than 170mm was recorded in both Napier and Hastings.

Some parts of Hawke's Bay had over 100mm of rain in less than 48 hours last week, just as farming and other organisations were getting together to consider the possible impacts of low rainfall.

But in Napier and Hastings and some other areas rainfall was still below the June average. July is historically the wettest month of the year with averages of 122mm for Napier, 145mm for Hastings, 93mm in Waipukurau, and 154mm in Dannevirke, while in Wairoa, where April is historically the wettest month, the average July rainfall is about 127mm.