Possible light rain on the day of the Mission Concert, but a generally fair Geon Art Deco Weekend are the weather cards which could be dealt for Hawke's Bay - according to forecaster Ken Ring.

His moon cycle-based predictions appear in his 2012 weather almanac which was prepared late last year, and if his forecasts for the opening week of February are anything to go by he may be on to something.

The opening week of the last official month of summer gets under way tomorrow under fine and warm conditions, although MetService is predicting a late southerly change.

Through Thursday the weather is forecast to be patchy and unsettled, and on Friday MetService is predicting rain and southwesterlies for the Bay and eastern regions.


Mr Ring's predictions effectively echo that.

MetService's long-range forecast has rain continuing on Friday and Saturday (as has Mr Ring in his almanac).

But Sunday, according to the official weather boffins is again set for rain, although Mr Ring's prediction is for fine weather.

Showers again for next Monday and Tuesday from MetService (and Mr Ring) with both official and unofficial forecasters going for clearing conditions the following day.

Mr Ring's predictions are effectively based on moon cycles, while MetService is taking its lead from weather systems under the spell of La Nina.

While MetService's site does not stretch as far as the long Art Deco Weekend between February 16 and 19, or the February 25 Rod Stewart at the Mission events, Mr Ring's almanac does.

February 16, he predicts, is likely to see clearing showers followed by three fine days.

February 25 is likely to be dominated by showers in "some" eastern regions.