Hawke's Bay is set for above-average temperatures during the first two months of spring with the possibility that an El Nino weather system could develop going into summer, bringing more westerly driven conditions to eastern regions.
The Niwa seasonal outlook through to October shows a 50 per cent chance that temperatures will be in the above-average range, and at the same time there is a 40 per cent chance that rainfall, soil moisture and rivers flows will be normal to above normal.
The first day of spring looks set to reflect the Niwa outlook in terms of the rainfall side of the equation with the forecast for September 1 across the twin cities being rain easing to showers and northeasterly winds, with a high of 16C.
Some light showers could continue into Tuesday, although the skies are set to clear with light winds and a high of 17C.
Spring will show its true hand next Wednesday when the forecast is for mainly fine and 18C. The MetService long-range forecast, however, is not so bright with overcast conditions and the possibility of showers through until the following weekend.
