All the empiric data suggests a 27th triumph for Whanganui is most likely tomorrow (they have won two from two in competition games so far this season) but still a feeling of unease must persist for the visitors.
That suits Hosea Gear's crew fine. They held on to beat Mid-Canterbury 36-34 at Ashburton last Saturday — only their second win at the Showgrounds in nine trips down south, and only their fifth victory overall against the Southerners in 20 clashes since 1991.
The underdogs showed stickability then, even if — having led 31-17 at the break — the green-and-whites had, by the 82nd minute, made it to within striking distance: 35m. First five-eighth Nathan McCloy, a try-scorer with 16 points in the fixture, had a chance to steal the game from the left touch with an attempt at penalty goal.
Jason Hamlin, who after 10 years as Whanganui's assistant and now successor to six-time Meads Cup-winning, two-time Lochore Cup-winning head coach Jason Caskey, remembers keenly the epic Meads Cup final of a decade ago between the Sky Blues and the Butcher Boys. One of Hamlin's great strengths, then as now, is team building.
“Our boys are in good spirits with the established players and young guys coming together — a great mixture,” said Hamlin, who served as assistant to South Canterbury's Nigel Walsh with the Heartland 15 in 2021.
“But about Ruatoria: no, we've not forgotten 2012, that occasion. I wish that we'd been on the other end of that result, but it wasn't to be.”
Right wing Alekesio Vakarorogo will play his blazer (15th) game tomorrow for the most successful side in the 15-year history of the Heartland Championship. So far this season they've beaten West Coast 43-19 at Rugby Park, Greymouth, and King Country 41-3.
Tighthead prop Bradley Fountain, a loan player from Old Boys-Marist in Manawatu, will come off the Whanganui reserves bench while the Coast's starting anchor — Waiapu titan Perrin Manuel — will play his 50th game for the home team.
Manuel scored a try in the Sky Blues' last hit-out, and their scrummaging effort then was a tremendous improvement on that of the competition opener at home, one in which NPEC led Horowhenua-Kapiti 14-13 at the break, but the 'Nua won the game 32-14. Jorian Tangaere, who scored the Coast's first try in this Heartland campaign a week before, played a grand game at No.6 and is the rake tomorrow. The deft footwork of second-five Joe Wadman saw him dot down in each half.
NPEC showed signs against Mid-Canterbury of real confidence. Their discipline was good; they were well-organised. Captain and halfback Sam Parkes, himself a tryscorer, and first-five Carlos Kemp look to be a good pair. Kemp converted four of the Sky Blues' four tries and a penalty goal at Ashburton, and converted both of their first-half tries against The 'Nua.
Gear has injured players to manage, but Parkes, Kemp, loose forwards Richie Green, Will Bolingford and the first try-scorer at the Showgrounds in Round 2, Hoani Te Moana, are all on deck up front. Hamuera Moana-Baker replaces their starting fullback of the past two weeks, Verdon Bartlett.
With five members of the team who beat Mid-Canterbury unavailable this week, head coach Gear has shuffled the deck. Featured in the game-day squad are two debutants: starting centre Junior Time-Taotua of Wellington club Northern United, on loan, and reserve prop Mike Gallagher of TVC.
The referee for tomorrow's game, Ben Woolerton (Waikato), controlled Thames Valley's 36-26 win against West Coast in Te Aroha. Woolerton, 24, an old boy of Hamilton BHS and procurement sourcing specialist for Livestock Improvement, will be having his 10th first-class match. The first assistant referee is Jimmy Green and the second assistant is Ava Pokoati (both NPEC).