In two years 2400 more people will be living here, and in 2028, seven years later, Stats NZ is predicting a population in Tairawhiti of 53,100 — that's 3600 more people and their cars.
Gisborne District Council (GDC) journeys infrastructure manager Dave Hadfield has noticed it too — personally and professionally.
“On average for the last 10 years the traffic has been increasing about 200 vehicles each year.”
That's if you extrapolate it from 2010 to now. But as Dave explains, the growth was slow in the early years and only over the past two to three years has that traffic really ramped up.
Some even say over the past few months.
But that five-to-seven minute wait as the car inches along Ormond Road, Gladstone Road or Childers Road after the school drop-off, or on the way to work, is all relative.
Someone from Auckland would think our 10-minute commute is fantastic.
Dave says the bulk of the traffic here is referred to as the “tidal effect”.
That's where a wave of vehicles goes one way in the morning, and the other way at the end of the day.
Around 45 percent of the traffic movement has to do with schools' start and finish times, and sports activities on the weekend, and Dave says that happens around the country.
“If you can minimise that, you can improve your efficiency around town.
“That's why we've got school buses, and pick up and collection times around the city.
“It was a historical decision where schools were placed and because there are no high schools in the Kaiti area, all the students go to another area across town.”
That means school holidays have a big impact on traffic flow.
Dave says a lot of people who have moved to Gisborne recently say they wanted to get away from the big traffic jams.
“The worst-case scenario would be if people leave Gisborne because of the traffic, and that would mean we've made a decision too late.”
Dave says the network still has capacity but he appreciates that at peak points each day there are delays.
Plans to curb the congestion include three new roundabouts being built over the next three years.
One will go at the notorious Aberdeen Road/Roebuck Road intersection. It will cost $175,000 and be done by the middle of next year.
Gisborne District Council's 2022/2023 budget also has $160,000 for another roundabout at the Aberdeen/Lytton Road intersection.
The third one will be at the Grey Street/ Palmerston Road intersection, budgeted in 2023/2024 for $150,000.
Stout Street will be made safer for traffic as well.
At the intersection with Wi Pere Street, only left-hand turns will be allowed. The safety designs for this new rule, to ensure no right turns or straight-ahead manoeuvres, will cost $175,000. Another $110,000 is in the budget for traffic-calming measures in Stout Street, where residents have complained of speeding and there have been a number of car crashes.
Tyndall Road residents will be pleased to know $80,000 will be spent on traffic-calming measures on their street as well.
The Lytton Road and Nelson Road roundabout will have improvements, as will the Gladstone and Stanley Road roundabout by Gisborne Girls' and Boys' High Schools.
Improvements to the Rutene and De Lautour Road roundabout are also planned.
Waka Kotahi traffic data between 2015 and 2109 show Gisborne traffic volumes rising rapidly.
On Awapuni Road, east of Grey Street, traffic has increased 23.6 percent. In 2015 the daily count was 4418 vehicles. By 2019 this had increased to 5464 — an increase of 1046 vehicles a day.
Traffic volumes on State Highway 35 on the way to Wainui have increased 16.3 percent. Between 2015 and 2019 the number of vehicles a day rose from 6644 to 7728 — or 1084 extra cars a day.
On SH35 south of the Harris Street turn-off, traffic has increased 6.5 percent, from 19,632 vehicles a day (across both lanes) in 2015 to 20,900 in 2019. That's an extra 1268 vehicles a day in four years.
Gisborne District Council has had traffic counts at the same locations over the years, driven by different road renewal programmes.
Nelson Road, between Anita Grove and Lytton Road, has had a 42 percent increase in daily vehicle movements over the past six years. The last count in August 2020 showed a daily total of 4769 vehicles. In 2014 it was 3360 vehicles a day.
Traffic on Wi Pere Street (between Stout Street and the Roebuck Road bridge) has increased 16.3 percent between 2014 and 2020 (12,578 vehicles a day to 14,634 a day).
And on Gladstone Road between Peel Street and Bright Street, traffic volumes have increased 13.3 percent — up from 8493 vehicles a day in 2014 to 9625 in 2020.
Still on Gladstone Road but between Lytton Road and Clarence Street, and over the p[ast 11 years, the number of vehicles increased 24 percent — up from 8744 in 2009 to 10,854 in 2020, while on Grey Street (between Childers Road and Gladstone Road) the traffic has increased 19 percent.
On the main road through Makaraka there has been a recorded 7 percent increase in two years — up from 8020 vehicles a day in 2018 (between Gladstone Road and Granny Tarr Street) to 8572 in 2020.
One notable decline in traffic has been recorded on Huxley Road on Outer Kaiti, between Craig Road and Daphne Street — a 62 percent decrease from 2013 vehicles a day in 2014 to 763 vehicles in 2020.
