Heavy rain likely early next week

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

The district is taking a cool approach to spring,  and there is the potential for another soaking over the next few days.

Signs are the developing El Nino climate pattern is taking control, bringing new issues for the region.

Temperatures for the Gisborne-East Cape area are down by half a degree on normal and MetService advises rain could reach warning levels — first tomorrow from the north-west and then on Monday and Tuesday from the south.

The heaviest rain is expected in northern Hawke’s Bay and southern Tairawhiti/Gisborne on Monday and Tuesday.

Strong south or southwest winds are also expected and there is moderate confidence it could reach severe gale force about northern Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne for a time late on Monday and early Tuesday.

By Monday a low is positioned off East Cape, switching the wind and rain direction, but the weather system is expected to quickly move away to the east.

Some media reports were saying the North Island was in for a “hammering” — but as of yesterday afternoon, no warnings or watches had been issued for this area.

With cold, water-logged ground, the recent days of clear sunny skies have seen some trees kick-started towards spring flowering, while others have yellowed leaves and are struggling after half a year’s soaking.

Despite the sunny days, the average temperature for the month is down on normal for the time of year by half a degree, at 10 degrees.

Our coldest day seems to have been July 26 with a mean of just 6.2 degrees, but Thursday just gone was also chilly, averaging just 7.7 degrees  over 24 hours.

July is Gisborne’s coldest month with the latest 30-year average putting the mean daily temperature at 9.9 degrees.

Groundwater levels are still well up and most of the district apart from the East Cape area, is at soil moisture capacity.

However, in accord with an oncoming El Nino, August to date has been a dry month, with just under 12 millimetres of rain so far.

The 30-year average for August is 86.5mm.

From an irrigation point of view, aquifers should be fully recharged after the record rainfall, and the city’s water storage is also in good shape for the time of year.

Although repair work to water supply network is ongoing, the storage lakes are around 95 percent capacity which is where they should be for the time of year.

The next few months’ outlook for agriculture and weather damage recovery will depend on the developing El Nino climate pattern.

The Climate Prediction Centre at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is keeping a close watch and says indications are greater than a 95 percent chance of it continuing through to February 2024.

Some climate organisations are expecting a strong El Nino, but as yet, there is no consensus on this.

From this district’s point of view, El Nino usually brings cooler, drier weather — which may be a relief to some, but after so much wet, the drying and cracking of soils may not be good from an erosion point of view.