El Niño pattern detected from space satellite

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

The first signs of a developing El Niño climate pattern have been spotted by a space satellite.

Gisborne-East Coast farmers and those affected by weather systems need to be aware of the imminent change and incorporate the latest advice in their planning.

The Sentinel 6 satellite, which monitors sea levels, has detected what are known as Kelvin waves moving across the Pacific.

These waves are just 5 to 10 centimetres high, but are hundreds of kilometres wide.

Nasa and US climate agencies consider they are a precursor to El Niño when they form at the equator and move the warm upper layer of water to the western Pacific.

The US Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) in its latest El Niño watch says while conditions have been neutral, the move to El Niño is expected between now and July.

“The combination of a third westerly wind event in late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Nino is on the horizon,” the  CPC says in its latest outlook.

“The range of possibilities for the November-January period include an 80 percent chance of at least a moderate El Nino to a 55 percent chance of a strong El Niño.”

For this region El Niño usually means more westerly winds and drier than normal conditions over summer.

According to Niwa (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) in an El Nino south-westerly winds tend to be stronger and more frequent in spring and autumn, while in winter it tends to be colder with more southerly winds.