Deluge due but expected to pass through quickly

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

A rapidly developing sub-tropic low in the Tasman threatens to deliver another deluge to the Gisborne-East Cape district at the end of the week.

Meanwhile climatologists believe a “significant” El Nino could be brewing.

For this week, several models show a low deepening to 977 hecto-pascals by Friday morning. It could be positioned off the west coast, but dragging a plume of moisture down to East Cape and the Gisborne coast.

While residents and farmers already hit by the damage of cyclones Hale and Gabrielle need to be ready for heavy rain, predictions are that the weather will move through very quickly.

With winter’s rainiest months yet to come, the district is already saturated from the events over summer.

Soil moisture levels are high, although little rain has fallen since last month.

The Gisborne region has had the best of the weather in the past three weeks, with much of both islands receiving low sunlight counts and 120 percent or more of normal rainfall.

Temperatures on the East Coast and the rest of the country have  been around two whole degrees warmer than usual, thanks to the thermal blanket effect of cloud, especially overnight.

Water temperatures are still above normal off the coast, around .4 of a degree above normal in the bay yesterday.

Meanwhile the latest El/Nino/La Nina update from the US Climate Prediction Centre says while conditions were neutral at the beginning of the month, the latest measurements indicate an El Nino is likely to form over the May-to-July period.

The centre says “a potentially significant El Nino is on the horizon” because of high levels of above-average ocean heat combined with wind current trends.