Bay of Plenty Times
  • Bay of Plenty Times home
  • Latest news
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
  • Sport
  • Video
  • Death notices
  • Classifieds

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • On The Up
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Residential property listings
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
  • Sport

Locations

  • Coromandel & Hauraki
  • Katikati
  • Tauranga
  • Mount Maunganui
  • Pāpāmoa
  • Te Puke
  • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua

Media

  • Video
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-Editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

Weather

  • Thames
  • Tauranga
  • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Bay of Plenty Times

The Premium Debate: Subscribers weigh in - what if the Reserve Bank is wrong?

Bay of Plenty Times
8 Dec, 2022 10:30 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌

Subscriber benefit

The ability to gift paywall-free articles is a subscriber only benefit. See more offers by clicking the button below.

Already a subscriber?  Sign in here
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Mark Mitchell, Herald montage
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Mark Mitchell, Herald montage

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Mark Mitchell, Herald montage

OPINION

(Liam Dann, Opinion, Tuesday): New Zealanders have embraced the Reserve Bank’s latest recessionary forecasts with great enthusiasm. Phew, everything is officially terrible. What a relief. After all the criticism it’s actually something of a surprise endorsement of the RBNZ’s credibility and reputation that the forecast recession has captured the public’s imagination, in a way numerous similar forecasts by other economists did not ... I worry that central banks, including ours, are going to overdo it with the hikes and cause a financial crash or deeper recession than is necessary. I’ll concede that view is born of my experience of recession in the early 1990s and the cycle of rate hikes ahead of the GFC in 2008. But, regardless, I can take some heart that the forecasts will probably be wrong.

Read the full story here: What if the Reserve Bank is wrong about the recession?... It probably will be

Have your say by going to bayofplentytimes.co.nz or rotoruadailypost.co.nz and becoming a Premium subscriber.

Last time we had a recession the G20 countries worked with the US to print a lot of money and China flooded the world with cheap goods. This time around it’s not going to happen. Inflation will be above 5 per cent for a long time.

Open up the latest news from Bay of Plenty

Get daily Bay of Plenty headlines straight to your inbox.
Please email me competitions, offers and other updates. You can stop these at any time.
By signing up for this newsletter, you agree to NZME’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
All Access. All in one subscription. From $2 per week
Subscribe now

All Access Weekly

From $2 per week
Pay just
$15.75
$2
per week ongoing
Subscribe now
BEST VALUE

All Access Annual

Pay just
$449
$49
per year ongoing
Subscribe now
Learn more
30
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

- John P

Judging by how the people in Christchurch, Wellington and Auckland have been out in force throwing money around in the past week since Orr lectured the public about pulling our heads in on spending, he will need to raise the interest rate even higher than what he foreshadows. The price to fix his past sins will be higher than he thinks.

- Luka D

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

We’re in a very uncertain environment that’s for sure. A great article by Liam shows the difficulty of predicting exactly what will happen. That being said, it didn’t need to be like this had the RBNZ turned off the money printing much sooner and the Government opened the borders much sooner. In the last few days a successful business like Rodney Wayne has closed salons and Madam Woo has gone into voluntary administration. These aren’t poorly performing businesses that were financially suspect. They’re very good businesses that have closed because of an engineered Labour crisis.

- Alan M

In August, Adrian Orr told us the OCR would peak at 4.1 per cent. In November Orr told us the OCR would peak at 5.5 per cent. Three months and the RBNZ projection had jumped in percentage terms by a massive 34 per cent (1.4 per cent on the original 4.1 per cent). Join the dots, Liam - yes they are wrong, and yes it will be much much worse than what Orr has told us, especially with the Government having pretty much said they will not be stopping spending and the usual election year bribes yet to come next year.

- Brad M

If they can’t get it right as the article suggest why bother having this bunch of overpaid bureaucrats?

- Pim V

It will be worse than the RBNZ is forecasting. The residential construction sector is on the edge of a massive slump, and it is pivotal to the domestic economy. With the slump occurring in that sector there will be less spending in hospitality, domestic tourism etc - the multiplier effect.

- Matt P

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Skilled professionals are leaving in droves and replaced anywhere close to fast enough if at all. Salary demands for those that remain are going through the roof. That’s what needs to change together with government belt-tightening or inflation will remain high. I don’t see it changing with Labour.

- Wayne M

WHAT DO YOU THINK? SEND A LETTER TO THE EDITOR

The Rotorua Daily Post and the Bay of Plenty Times welcome letters from readers. Please note the following:

- Letters should not exceed 200 words.

- They should be opinion based on facts or current events.

- If possible, please email.

- No noms de plume.

- Letters will be published with names and suburb/city.

- Please include full name, address and contact details for our records only.

- Local letter writers given preference.

- Rejected letters are not normally acknowledged.

- Letters may be edited, abridged, or rejected at the Editor’s discretion.

- The Editor’s decision on publication is final. No correspondence will be entered into.

Email editor@dailypost.co.nz or editor@bayofplentytimes.co.nz

Subscriber benefit

The ability to gift paywall-free articles is a subscriber only benefit. See more offers by clicking the button below.

Already a subscriber?  Sign in here
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from Bay of Plenty Times

Bay of Plenty Times

Whakatāne homicide: Women accused of killing 8-year-old boy face additional charges

28 May 06:00 AM
Bay of Plenty Times

'Struggling to keep up': Support for banning under-16s from social media

28 May 05:01 AM
Bay of Plenty Times

Hard work pays off: Six young BoP squash players prepare for worlds in Egypt

28 May 01:23 AM

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Recommended for you
State of Origin I: Queensland v New South Wales
NRL

State of Origin I: Queensland v New South Wales

28 May 09:55 AM
Watch: Lorde treats fans to special pop-up show
Entertainment

Watch: Lorde treats fans to special pop-up show

28 May 08:42 AM
Powerball jackpot rolls over to $10m, seven players share First Division prize
New Zealand

Powerball jackpot rolls over to $10m, seven players share First Division prize

28 May 08:30 AM
'Right behind the bus': Person hospitalised after Auckland bus accident
New Zealand

'Right behind the bus': Person hospitalised after Auckland bus accident

28 May 08:21 AM
Forgetful pizza store robber leaves police scanner - with his DNA all over it - at the scene
New Zealand

Forgetful pizza store robber leaves police scanner - with his DNA all over it - at the scene

28 May 08:00 AM

Latest from Bay of Plenty Times

Whakatāne homicide: Women accused of killing 8-year-old boy face additional charges

Whakatāne homicide: Women accused of killing 8-year-old boy face additional charges

28 May 06:00 AM

Rickah'Shae Keefe-Haerewa died after an alleged assault in Te Teko in 2024.

'Struggling to keep up': Support for banning under-16s from social media

'Struggling to keep up': Support for banning under-16s from social media

28 May 05:01 AM
Hard work pays off: Six young BoP squash players prepare for worlds in Egypt

Hard work pays off: Six young BoP squash players prepare for worlds in Egypt

28 May 01:23 AM
Heavy rain advisories for BoP, thunderstorms possible

Heavy rain advisories for BoP, thunderstorms possible

27 May 11:17 PM
Explore the hidden gems of NSW
sponsored

Explore the hidden gems of NSW

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • Bay of Plenty Times e-edition
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Subscribe to the Bay of Plenty Times
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
All Access. All in one subscription. From $2 per week
Subscribe now

All Access Weekly

From $2 per week
Pay just
$15.75
$2
per week ongoing
Subscribe now
BEST VALUE

All Access Annual

Pay just
$449
$49
per year ongoing
Subscribe now
Learn more
30
TOP
search by queryly Advanced Search