Housing growth in Pyes Pa is surging and subdivided sections in Tauranga's more established suburbs are leaving traditional growth areas such as Papamoa behind.
Latest council housing trends based on consents issued for new homes and sections have highlighted Pyes Pa as the city's slumbering giant - led by the massive
Lakes development.
Although Papamoa was expected to race ahead once huge stormwater disposal planning hurdles had been solved, the suburb appears to have lost its ascendancy for at least the next five years.
The big picture of Tauranga's growth has been captured by council consents issued between March 2006 and June 2007.
Building consents issued for Tauranga's older suburbs now equal those for Papamoa's greenfield growth areas - proof of the extent to which development along the coast has slowed.
Papamoa has slipped back to fourth place in the most reliable indicator of where development action was about to take place - new building lots.
It was beaten by Pyes Pa, Tauranga's established suburbs, and Bethlehem, and only managed to edge out Welcome Bay's 140 new sections.
Ohauiti's comparatively small growth area remained a strong performer by continuing to outstrip growth predictions by 50 per cent, although the number of new lots indicates development has plateaued. The signals are better for Welcome Bay's growth area.
However, in terms of sheer scale, it was at Pyes Pa that the hills will really be alive with the sound of building.
Nearly 40 per cent of the city's 1780 new lots created in the 15 months to June 30 were in the Pyes Pa growth area, dominated by the massive Lakes subdivision.
Combine the 380 new lots created in Tauranga's older suburbs with Pyes Pa's 670 lots, and it left the city's four remaining greenfield growth areas and older coastal suburbs with only 40 per cent of the short- to medium-term development market.
And though Pyes Pa is on the brink of a huge building boom, ironically it was the growth area that lagged the furthest behind SmartGrowth projections for house consents - 40 per cent below.
Papamoa's shrinking greenfield growth area was the only other place to lag behind forecasts - at 18 per cent.
Welcome Bay and Ohauiti's growth areas were comfortably ahead of forecasts (on a much smaller numbers base), while the city's established coastal suburbs and Bethlehem's growth area progressed solidly, without any statistical blips.
Overall, the statistics showed building consents tracked close to SmartGrowth projections for the first six months of this year, though that was before the current squeeze on interest and exchange rates.
It was a better picture for new lots created in the first half of the year, with 430 more than forecasted.
Housing growth in Pyes Pa is surging and subdivided sections in Tauranga's more established suburbs are leaving traditional growth areas such as Papamoa behind.
Latest council housing trends based on consents issued for new homes and sections have highlighted Pyes Pa as the city's slumbering giant - led by the massive
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