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Home / Bay of Plenty Times

MetService New Year forecast: Heavy rain to hit festival hotspots

Natasha Gordon
Natasha Gordon
Live News Reporter·NZ Herald·
27 Dec, 2025 04:00 PM3 mins to read

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Rain is set to drench partygoers and campers as they head to holiday and festival hotspots in the lead-up to New Year celebrations.

An active low-pressure system is expected to move on to the North Island during tomorrow and Tuesday, bringing bursts of heavy rain and strong to gale southeasterly winds, MetService said.

One of New Zealand’s most iconic music festivals, Rhythm & Vines, which kicks off tomorrow, is in the direct firing line for the heavy rain.

About 15,000-18,000 campers will arrive at the festival from today as the rain starts to bear down.

MetService has already issued a heavy rain watch for Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti from tomorrow until Tuesday morning.

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MetService has already issued a heavy rain watch for the Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti. Image / MetService
MetService has already issued a heavy rain watch for the Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti. Image / MetService

As Kiwis hit the roads, MetService warned streams and rivers may rise rapidly, causing surface flooding, slips and difficult driving conditions in these areas.

Now in its 23rd year, Rhythm and Vines is regarded as one of the most popular and well-attended New Year’s festivals in Australasia, having attracted more than 375,000 people to Gisborne since its inception in 2003.

MetService meteorologist Devlin Lynden told the Herald there is a risk that partygoers in Gisborne and the Coromandel may also have to contend with thunderstorm activity.

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“It’s certainly going to be quite wet in those areas, and we’re expecting those areas to approach our warning criteria for that period.

“There’s certainly the risk [for thunderstorms], but at the moment, it’s really just this moisture coming down from the tropics, that’s the most significant risk,” Lynden said.

New Year’s forecast

As the countdown to 2026 approaches, the South Island is lookinh like one of the better places to be for New Year’s celebrations, as unsettled weather continues to affect much of the country.

Lynden said the wet weather for the North Island is likely to continue into the days leading up to New Year’s Eve.

“That low-pressure system in the Tasman Sea does seem to hang around for a while ... I’m sure not everyone will be stoked about it,” he said.

Lynden said Aucklanders will be under a northwesterly flow on New Year’s Day.

“There’ll be some cloudy periods for them, perhaps a shower or two in the afternoon, as the cloud kind of increases there.”

He said at this stage, Wellington will receive some rain, particularly in the morning, and Christchurch will have light winds as the low-pressure system centres itself on the northern South Island through New Year’s Day.

Lynden said Dunedin is likely in for a chilly New Year’s as southerlies push in to the area.

“Dunedin, right the way through the week, it’s looking quite cold for them, but on New Year’s Eve, they’re looking at a high of 16C, and New Year’s Day, a high of 18C. So, definitely chilly,” he said.

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He said the North Island is likely to have typical temperatures through the New Year period, while the South Island will remain slightly cooler.

“It’s quite a complicated system over the country, so things are likely to change with those forecasts,” he said.

Patches of snow along the road SH8 towards Fairlie after Cave and on the surrounding hills. Photo / Supplied
Patches of snow along the road SH8 towards Fairlie after Cave and on the surrounding hills. Photo / Supplied

This forecast comes after fierce thunderstorms and thick hail already battered parts of the South Island yesterday.

Several severe thunderstorm warnings were issued throughout the afternoon in Selwyn, Ashburton, Christchurch city, Banks Peninsula, Timaru and Mackenzie.

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