Election results 2020: Special vote counting, MP Maureen Pugh likely to leave Parliament for third time

After her likely third exit from Parliament, Maureen Pugh will go tractor shopping - her current one doesn't operate the new mower particularly well.

The National MP just scraped back into Parliament after provisional results of the election, but the party has lost at least one seat after the final count since 2005.

Pugh says she's under no illusions and has contingencies.

The West Coaster is filling the three weeks between the election and the final results on November 6 packing up her Parliament office, having meetings and inking a to-do list.

Quietly, Pugh suspects her husband is hoping she doesn't lose her job so they don't have to make a start on the lengthy list of projects.

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Pugh is well-practised at the boomeranging in and out of Parliament - this would be her third time after just getting through the doors in 2014 and 2017 only to be outed after the special votes.

It was only after Bill English resigned in 2018 that Pugh finally got one of the green leather seats in the House.

"I think actually the situation I find myself in is bordering on comical. It's okay to be in this situation once, even twice would be bizarre. But to be in this position for the third time is almost comical.

"Even some of my colleagues were joking about it the other day, saying 'We should put you way down the list because you end up being our benchmark'. I don't know if I really agree with that theory though."

Pugh is number 19 on National's list and is in because their 26.8 per cent result awards them 35 seats but National's final tally on average drops 0.73 per cent.

National MP Maureen Pugh has plans to go tractor shopping if she leaves Parliament for the third time. Photo / Jason Walls

Pugh's third ousting might not spell the end of her parliamentary career - she said she's likely to be the next back in if one of her colleagues stands down mid-term.

Until the time she's recalled, Pugh plans to help her husband on their Angus farm and help her daughter on her cancer journey.

And for the others in this position for the first time, Pugh's advice is accept people have already voted and there's nothing you can do but wait.

Her National MP colleagues Denise Lee in Maungakiekie, Penny Simmonds in Invercargill and Matt King in Northland are among those in Pugh's shoes - but conversely if one of them loses it could mean Pugh stays on in Parliament due to the way seats are allocated.

This election there are eight marginal seats where the victor won by 1000 votes or fewer, so could lose it after the special votes are tallied.

On average there are 5200 special votes - including overseas voters, people outside their electorates and prisoners - per electorate, so the 1000 vote margin could be overturned.

Historically these votes have favoured the left, with both Labour and the Greens on average getting a 0.43 per cent bump.

The electorate with the tightest margin is Whangārei, where National MP Shane Reti holds it by just 164 votes.

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If he loses and the parties experience their traditional gains and loses, Reti would still be in Parliament on the list, Labour candidate Emily Henderson would take the seat and Labour would get a 65th seat.

That would mean Angela Roberts, who is currently number 50 on Labour's list, could keep her provisional spot in Parliament.

Another close electorate is Waiariki which was won by Māori Party candidate Rawiri Waititi by 415 votes.

Waiariki MP-elect Rawiri Waititi is also waiting for the results of the special results but is already eyeing up 2023. Photo / Supplied.

If Waititi loses to Labour's Tāmati Coffey and Labour gets its usual 0.43 per cent boost that would also entitle it to 65 seats and it could bring in number 54 on its list, Lemauga Lydia Sosene.

That would also mean the Māori Party would be out of Parliament because it didn't meet the 5 per cent threshold so their votes would be redistributed to the other parties.

Waititi has adopted a similar mindset to Pugh about the three weeks in limbo.

He said they left no stone unturned in Waiariki during the campaign so there wasn't anything they could do.

"If that falls the other way, then that's kei te pai to me, you continue to work hard and the election for 2023 will start," Waititi said.

"I'm comfortable and I'm settled that the votes are in the hands of our people ... We did everything we could to appeal to our people and at the end of the day.

"This is what democracy is."