El Nino threatens to cool down season

German exchange students, Marlene Erning (front) Franzi Buchner (left) and Hetti Flotho enjoy the summer sun at the Mount Beach.

Weather forecasters say there is a high chance that a weak El Nino weather pattern will develop this summer, bringing cooler and windier conditions to the Bay of Plenty.

However, the Eastern Bay will be harder hit than Tauranga if the weather pattern does eventuate.

Niwa's seasonal climate outlook for December to February says there is a 75 per cent chance of an El Nino weather pattern developing.

In New Zealand, an El Nino system typically brings cooler, wetter conditions, with higher rainfall in regions that were normally wet, and often drought to areas that were usually dry.

Niwa National Climate Centre principal scientist Brett Mullan said if an El Nino pattern did develop, it would bring drier, cooler and windier conditions to the Bay of Plenty, but it would affect the Eastern Bay the most.

Dr Mullan said temperatures would not be particularly hot.

The report predicts an average summer, with temperature, rainfall and soil moisture measurements all expected to be near average.

Temperature had a 45 per cent chance of being near average and a 35 per cent chance of being above average.

Soil moisture has an equal chance of being average and below average.

Sea surface temperatures for the coming three months were expected to be near average around the coast.

Meanwhile, the short term weather forecast predicts a 25C high for Sunday.